- 53% of all SWFX open positions are short
- Prices fluctuate around the 1,340 level since August 4
- A huge fall was caused by US Non-Farm Payrolls data
- Economic events to watch over the next 24 hours: US Initial Jobless Claims (Aug 13); US Philly Fed Manufacturing (Aug); FOMC member Dudley speaks; US Leading Indicators (July)
US crude oil inventories dropped after three consecutive weeks of gains, fresh data showed on Wednesday. According to the Energy Information Administration's (EIA) weekly report, US oil stockpiles fell 2.5 million barrels in the week ended August 12, compared to the 1.1 million barrel upturn seen in the previous seven days, while market analysts anticipated a slight increase of 300,000 barrels in the reported period. Furthermore, the EIA reported that gasoline inventories dropped 2.7 million barrels in the same period, following the 2.8 million barrel decline seen previously, whereas markets pencilled in a decrease of 1.5 million barrels. Meanwhile, distillate stockpiles rose 1.9 million barrels, after falling 2.0 million in the preceding week, while economic desks expected to see a 600,000 drop. On Tuesday, the American Petroleum Institute (API) reported a bigger-than-expected 1 million-barrel fall in US crude oil inventories and a 2.2 million climb in gasoline stockpiles for the week ending August 12. Oil prices rebounded from their lows they touched two weeks ago amid fresh talks by some OPEC members to restrain output at the September meeting in Algiers. Nevertheless, analysts remain sceptical, arguing that the OPEC cartel and non-OPEC countries will not reach an agreement at their upcoming meeting next month.
US core consumer prices grew less than expected last month, official data showed on Tuesday. According to the Department of Labor, the core Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.1% on a monthly seasonally adjusted basis in July, compared to the 0.2% hike seen in the previous month. Economic desks expected the core CPI to remain unchanged from June. On an annual basis, core inflation increased 2.2% in the reported month, while market analysts predicted the indicator to come in at 2.3% in July, unchanged from last month. Including food and energy, consumer prices dropped to 0.0% month-over-month in the seventh month of the year, down from the 0.2% upturn registered in June, but in line with analysts' expectations. Year-over-year, inflation added 0.8% last month, compared to the 1.0% increase seen in the first month of summer. The US CPI data along with the latest retail sales figures added to concerns about the health of the US economy, raising doubts as to whether the Federal Reserve will increase interest rates this year, as it formally adopted a 2% inflation target back in January 2012. Meanwhile, other data released on Tuesday showed that building permits fell 0.1% to 1.152 million units in July, after rising 1.5% to 1.153 million units in the preceding month, while markets pencilled in an increase of 0.5% to 1.159 million in the reported month.
Upcoming fundamentals: Initial Jobless Claims and other data
In the second half of the day, data from the US will indicate at the strength of the US Dollar, as US Initial Jobless Claims will be out at 12:30. At the same time Philly Fed Manufacturing index for August will be out, and it is forecasted to be a 1.2. At 14:00 GMT the FOMC member Dudely will give a speech, and the US Leading Indicators for July will be published.
XAU/USD surges past 1,350 mark on Thursday
Daily chart: The situation looks like the bullion stopped bouncing around the 1,340 level, and it has set a northward direction. By 5:00 GMT on Thursday morning, the yellow metal was just at 1,352.16, which is just above the first weekly resistance at 1,351.70. In addition, the metal had been more volatile to the upside, showing signs of a continuation of the surge, and the daily aggregate technical indicators forecast also a surge for the commodity during today's trading session. As gold will surge, it is set to struggle next at the 1,368.07 level, where the second weekly resistance is located at.Daily chart
Hourly chart: On the hourly chart for gold it can be seen that the yellow metal was bouncing between the weekly and monthly pivot points between the levels of 1,340.78 and 1,345.31. That happened due to the fact, that all of the hourly simple moving averages had moved to this level, as gold had been trading flat for the past week. However, after being highly volatile between the levels of 1,335.97 and 1.351.70 at 18:00 GMT, the commodity began an upward movement, as it moved past the first weekly resistance at 1,351.70 by 1:00 GMT.
Hourly chart
Traders remain bearish on Thursday
Meanwhile, OANDA Bank clients are bullish with respect to the bullion, precisely in 59.68%. In the meantime, SAXO bank clients are less bullish on the yellow metal, as 55.94% of positions are long.