- 59% of all SWFX market positions are short
- Pending orders are minimally biased in bearish favour
- Key support lies at 1.1376 (weekly/monthly PPs/20-day SMA), more than 100 pips under the spot
- Daily technical indicators continue to be mixed
- Economic events to watch over the next 24 hours: US Unemployment Claims; ECB Vice-President Constancio Speaks; FOMC Members Bullard, Lockhart, Kaplan and Williams Speak
Economic growth in the Euro zone is likely to be steady but slow in the second quarter, underlying European Commission concerns that the currency area's recovery remains fragile and vulnerable to setbacks. Euro bloc's retail sales dropped for the first month in five during March Sales at European retailers dropped 0.5% on the month, compared with expectations of a more modest 0.1% decline, as consumers cut purchases of food, drinks and tobacco. Yet consumer spending was likely again a catalyst of growth in the first quarter of the year while European businesses faced weaker demand for their exports from China and other large developing economies. Separately, Markit's composite purchasing managers' index, which provides a good steer on overall economic growth, fell to 53.0 in April from 53.1 in March. The services PMI remained at March's 14-month low of 53.1 in April, just shy of a preliminary 53.2 reading. The Commission, meanwhile, said in its economic forecasts that Euro zone growth would be slower than previously estimated, with tepid inflation this year, and warned of high external and internal risks to the bloc's economy. Economists predict 0.4% growth in April-June as the region is still struggling with high debt, weak bank profits, high unemployment and still considerable excess capacity in the economy.
Australia's retail sales recovered in March after a lacklustre start to the year, reflecting strong consumer confidence and improving job market conditions. For the first time in four months Australian retail sales overshot expectations, increasing 0.4% to $24.946 billion in March, according to the Australian Bureau of Statistics. Retail sales in the first quarter rose 0.5% from the final quarter of last year. Economists expected a 0.7% gain over the reported period. Although the monthly sales increase beat estimates, it was a different story for quarterly retail volumes, something that accounts for around 30% of household consumption in Australia's GDP. It increased by 0.5% over the quarter, missing expectations for a bigger gain of 0.7%. It is still likely to contribute to GDP, just not as much as had been expected. A separate report showed Australia's trade shortfall shrank sharply in March after resource exports soared, suggesting recent commodity price gains may be starting to bring Australia's trade books back into balance. Australia posted a seasonally adjusted trade deficit of A$2.16 billion in March, compared with a deficit of A$3.04 billion in February. Australia is becoming a more significant exporter of energy products with a liquefied natural gas boom just getting underway.
Upcoming fundamentals: Quiet EU session, US to bring more activity
There are no data releases in Europe today, as only the Vice-President of the European Central Bank Vitor Constancio is going to speak later in the day. However, it is already going to happen throughout the American trading, as he is going to participate in a panel discussion in Ottawa, Canada at 13:15 GMT. US-published data will include the initial jobless claims for the week ended April 30. Economists foresee an increase in the number of claims for benefits up to 260,000 last week, up from 257,000 in the preceding seven-day period. Meanwhile, four Fed presidents are going to speak later in the evening on Thursday.
EUR/USD is still capped by 1.1538
Yesterday's trading conditions were light, even despite broad presence of important US statistics including the first insight into labour market's performance in April. The Dollar-bullish side won, as they kept the EUR/USD pair below 1.15. The weekly and monthly R1s at 1.1538, however, remain as key resistances for the moment. They are fuelled by the upper Bollinger band at 1.1552. While the daily technical studies are still mixed, there is a risk the pair is going to get stuck between the aforementioned resistance cluster and the weekly/monthly pivots and 20-day SMA at 1.1374 for some period of time.Daily chart
The one-hour chart is maintaining the wait-and-see mode, while awaiting the 200-hour SMA to approach the spot price. The gap between them still amounts to slightly less than 100 pips. As soon as they meet together, the moving average will be forecasted to begin generating fresh upside pressure. However, a failure of the bulls to use this opportunity may result in a sell-off into the 1.1215 region (April low).
Hourly chart
SWFX sentiment changes a little amid choppy trading
66.11% of OANDA clients are betting the EUR/USD currency pair will slump in value, while SAXO Bank traders are maintaining the same view on the matter in 68.9% of all cases.
Spreads (avg,pip) / Trading volume / Volatility
Dukascopy Community members are divided on this week's perspectives of EUR/USD
Dukascopy Community members are divided equally in their expectations, as a consensus forecast stands at 1.1370. Still, the level is more than 70 pips above the last week's average price, meaning the pair continues trading in a strong uptrend.
Both Daytrader21 and Jignesh are bearish with respect to the common European currency. Daytrader21 suggests that "the ECB's commitment to its aggressive easing stance, coupled with a resumption in the US Dollar bullish trend, should keep EUR/USD under pressure in coming week. I am looking for a retest of the 1.1080 support level". Alongside, Jignesh is suggesting the following: "Last week's price action gave us a clue for a bullish cycle in the USD. [...] Though the pair remains in a bullish cycle for 2016, the Dollar Index is showing USD strength, which translates into a correction of the pair that can last at least over the next week or two."