- Market sentiment is 51% bearish (-2%)
- 59% of pending orders in 1000-pip range are set to BUY Gold
- Upcoming fundamental events: ECOFIN meetings, US Core PCE Price Index m/m and Personal Spending m/m, Chicago PMI
Following an unsuccessful test of the 100-hour SMA, the yellow metal is guided by bearish movement on Monday morning.
The Census Bureau released two data simultaneously, where Core Durable Goods Orders came out less-than-expected of 0.0%.
However, Durable Goods Orders came out better-than-expected of 2.6%. Moreover, Unemployment Claims turned out to be 209K in March.
No major market movers today
This week is likely to start calmly for the EUR/USD exchange rate, as this session includes only three fundamental releases and all of moderate importance. The US Bureau of Economic Analysis is set to publish the Core PCE Price Index and Personal Spending for March at 1230GMT. The Chicago PMI is published at 1345GMT.
Gold sees bearish pressure
The yellow metal was guided by upside momentum on Friday. The pair accelerated mid-session as a result of which it surpassed the 55-hour SMA. However, the nearby-located 100-hour moving average and the upper boundary of a one-week channel halted any further attempts to move above the 1,325.00 mark
Bears took over the market during the Asian session today, thus pushing the pair back below the aforementioned SMAs. Technical indicators suggest that this sentiment could be maintained in this session, as well. Thus, Gold is expected to fall down to the bottom channel line at 1,310.00.
Meanwhile, the first part of this week could mark a bullish recovery that should be followed by a test of the 200-hour SMA circa 1,335.00.
Hourly Chart
As apparent on the daily chart, Gold has not surrendered its ranging motion. This medium-term pattern began late in December, 2017, and has since bounded the rate in the 1,360.00/1,312.00 territory.
The pair's movement last week marked a strong decline down to the 100-day SMA and the lower range boundary. It is likely that this range gets abandoned soon just to allow for a further fall down to the 200-day SMA and the 23.60% Fibonacci retracement near 1,300.00 this week.
Daily Chart
Dukascopy traders are shorting the metal
SWFX market sentiment remains bearish with 51% of traders holding short positions. Meanwhile, pending commands are set to buy the metal in 59% of all cases (+1%).
OANDA traders are strongly bullish, as 62% of open positions are long in this session (+2%). In addition, Saxo bank clients share the same sentiment with 64% long positions (+2%).