- SWFX traders are 53% bearish
- 60% of pending orders in 1000-pip range are set to SELL the gold
- Commodity rebounds from 200-hour SMA
- Upcoming events: US PPI, Unemployment Claims plus FOMC Member Dudley Speaks
Because of combined support formed by the lower line of an ascending channel and the 200-hour SMA, the pair made another attempt to surge above the 1,323.00 level. As this attempt failed, the rate is expected to spend some testing the weekly PP, but then make a fully-fledged breakout to the south.
The US employment growth weakened significantly in December due to a decrease in retail jobs, while a surge in monthly pay gains indicated the labour market strength, which could enable the Federal Reserve to hike interest rates in Spring. The Labour Department stated that the non-farm payrolls increased 148K in the reported month, following an upwardly revised 252K in November. Job growth is anticipated to moderate as the labour market remains close to full employment, though with some chances to get a boost from $1.5T tax cuts package.
US PPI
At 13:30 GMT swing traders will get an opportunity to the US PPI release, which is projected to decrease to 0.2% from 0.4%. The event will be covered by Dukascopy Research Team.
XAU/USD tries to bypass 1,323.00 again
Contrary to expectations, the exchange rate failed to sneak below the combined support formed by the lower trend-line of a junior ascending channel and the 200-hour SMA. In other words, bulls made one more, though unsuccessful, attempt to push the bullion through the upper boundary of a four-month long dominant descending channel. In larger perspective, the pair is still expected to make a fully-fledged rebound from this boundary even though the current horizontal movement might last for another two weeks because of support provided by the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level at 1,311.48. On hourly chart a combination of the weekly PP, the 55- and 100-hour SMAs most probably will prevent the pair from falling below the 1,316.00 mark during this trading session. However, this scenario might be altered due to fundamentals, such as the US PPI data release.
Hourly Chart
As it was mentioned earlier, due to support formed by the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level at 1,311.48 the exchange rate might extend horizontal movement for another week or two. However, in larger perspective the yellow metal is still expected to start losing value against the buck via slipping towards the lower edge of a large, dominant ascending channel.
Daily Chart
Markets sentiment is neutral
SWFX market sentiment is bullish on Gold, as 53% of open positions are short. Accordingly, the same number of pending commands is set to buy the commodity.
OANDA traders are bearish, as 55% of open positions are short (-5%). In the meantime, SAXO bank traders are 51% bearish.