- SWFX market sentiment is 57% bearish
- 50% of pending orders in 100-pip range are set to BUY
- 53% of traders are bullish on the Dollar
- Upcoming Events: US CB Consumer Confidence and Pending Home Sales
Yesterday's trading session the currency rate expectedly spent in a limbo between the 1.1880 and 1.1850 marks. Today the rate once again is expected to test the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level. However, without proper impulse this attempt most likely will fail.
The Greenback strengthened against the Euro, following the Richmond Fed report of unexpected decline in its Manufacturing Index. The EUR/USD exchange rate lost 7 base points or 0.06% to rebound from the daily high of 1.1880.
The Federal Reserve of Richmond released its survey, showing that the manufacturing growth was slower over the month of December. The Manufacturing Index dropped to 20 from 30 in the reported month, being an additional sign for the Fed to keep interest rate hike plans in 2018. Meanwhile, markets remained on a cautions stance ahead of the New Year, with the US Dollar taking less attractive stand, which could be sustained until the Fed's new President Powell takes the position.
Consumer sentiment
Despite the holiday mood it might be worth to take a look at release of information on sentiment of American consumers, which is expected to decrease to 128.2 from 129.5.
EUR/USD tries to bypass 1.1885
In accordance with expectations, previous trading session the currency rate mostly spent fluctuating between support and resistance zones located near the 1.1848 and 1.1876 levels. From the very first hours of the new trading day the pair inched higher to test the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level at 1.1887. Due to formation of a junior ascending channel that is backed up by a combination of the 55- and 100-hour SMAs the exchange rate might actually break to the top. The fact that majority of pending orders are set to buy confirms this assumption. On the other hand, a number of technical indicators signal that the pair has already become overbought. There is a need to notice that apart of the CB Consumer Confidence release there are planned no macroeconomic data releases that could heat the further surge.
Hourly Chart
The currency rate is continuing to fluctuate in a triangle formed by the upper line of a dominant descending channel and the bottom line of a junior ascending channel. From this perspective, the pair is expected to soar to the 1.1900 mark. However, the fact that the rate failed to bypass the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level four times in a row suggests that it might resume the downward movement.
Daily Chart
Market sentiment is bearish
In result of the previous trading session the bearish market sentiment has not change, as 57% of open positions are short now.
In the meantime, the outlook for the two currencies against the rest of the traded financial instruments is the following: the Euro is 62% bearish and the Dollar is 53% bullish.
Traders of OANDA remain bearish, as 60% (-1%) of open positions are short. Meanwhile, SAXO are bearish on this currency pair with 61% (+0%) of open short positions.
Spreads (avg, pip) / Trading volume / Volatility