On Thursday morning, the XAU/USD exchange rate was testing the support formed by the 55-, 100- nad 200-hour SMAs.
If the given support holds, it is likely that yellow gold could extend gains against the US Dollar in the nearest future.
Economic Calendar Analysis
This week there will be one data release, which might impact the price of gold through a value adjustment of the USD.
Today, the US Durable Goods Orders data will be released at 12:30 GMT.
XAU/USD short-term forecast
On Thursday, the XAU/USD exchange rate reversed south from the upper boundary of the ascending triangle pattern at 1,496.00. During today's morning, the rate was testing the support formed by the 55-, 100– and 200-hour SMAs circa 1,489.59.
If the given moving averages hold, it is likely that some upside potential could prevail in the market, and the rate could re-test the upper pattern line.
If the given moving averages do not hold, yellow metal could decline to the lower triangle line at 1,488.00. If the given pattern does not hold, a breakout south could occur.
Hourly Chart
On the daily candle chart, the low level of October 1 has provided a reference point for charting patterns. A confirmed large scale ascending pattern has been spotted and added to the chart by Dukascopy Analytics.
It can be seen that the September surge occurred in the borders of the pattern until it met with its resistance line.
Meanwhile, in the borders of the larger pattern there exists a smaller channel down pattern. It represents the commodity price's consolidation in the borders of the larger pattern.
Daily Chart
Traders go short
Since Wednesday, 73% of open gold position volume on the Swiss Foreign Exchange was in short positions.
Meanwhile, in the 1000 base point range around the current metal's price the pending orders were bullish – 60% of orders were to buy and 40% to sell.