- SWFX market sentiment is 72% bullish
- Pending orders in the 1000-pip range are set to buy in 66% of cases
- Canadian data release at 13:30 GMT
After the previous jump, gold prices retraced downwards and revealed the borders of a short term ascending pattern. Note that there is a strong technical support cluster at 1,221.50 made up SMAs and trend lines.
Latest Fundamental Event
The Energy Information Administration released the US Crude Inventories data that came out lower-than-expected of 3.6M, compare to forecasted 0.6M.
Below are some key notes from the weekly report published by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)
- "U.S. crude oil refinery inputs averaged 17.6 million barrels per day during the week ending November 23, 2018. "
- "Total products supplied over the last four-week period averaged 21.1 million barrels per day, up by 5.6% from the same period last year. "
Canadian data incoming in 13:30 GMT
Last, but most important for data release traders, will be the Canadian GDP data release at 13:30 GMT. This event is expected to cause the most volatility that a data release can cause. Although, it will be only observable on Canadian Dollar pairs.The event will be covered live by Dukascopy Analytics. The live coverage will begin ten minutes before the event. It can be watched on the Dukascopy Webinars platform and the YouTube channel.
XAU/USD short term forecast
During Thursday's trading session, the yellow metal broke the 61.80 % Fibonacci retracement level to trade above the technical indicator. Afterwards, the gold depreciated against the US Dollar to end the trading session at 1,224.03. During Friday morning hours, the yellow metal was located at 1,224.31 mark.
In regards to the near-term future, most likely, the yellow metal will trade upwards to break the 61.80% Fibo at 1,225.59 due to the supports of the simple moving averages. It is expected that the gold will be trading at the 1,228.00 level on Friday.
On the other side, if the US Dollar will appreciate against the gold, the yellow metal could pass through the supports of the SMAs to trade at 1,218.00 level.
Hourly Chart
From the daily chart the retracement downwards was stopped by the strong support cluster at the 1,213.00 mark. At that level the 55 and 100-day simple moving averages were holding ground. In addition, the monthly pivot point was a part of the support cluster.Meanwhile, note that on the daily chart the metal has no technical resistance as high as the 1,245.00 level.
Daily Chart
Long sentiment decreases
72% of traders were long since Thursday. The traders had previously decreased their large bullish sentiment, as short term traders took profits.
Meanwhile, trader pending orders in the 1000-base point range were 54% to buy on Thursday. By the middle of Friday's trading session already 60% of orders were set to buy.