- SWFX market sentiment is 71% bullish
- Pending orders in the 1000-pip range are set to buy in 55% of cases
- No more data this week
The yellow metal has bounced off the support of the dominant pattern and surged up to the 1,215.00 mark. This is not only good for the bullish holders of Dukascopy, but also signals that the metal's price is set to continue higher.
Latest Fundamental Event
On Wednesday, the Bureau of Labor Statistics released US CPI data that came in line with expectations of 0.3%.
"The all items index rose 2.5 percent for the 12 months ending October, a larger increase than the 2.3-percent increase for the 12 months ending September. The index for all items less food and energy rose 2.1 percent for the 12 months ending October. The energy index increased 8.9 percent, while the food index increased more modestly, advancing 1.2 percent over the last 12 months." The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported on Wednesday.
No more data this week
By 14:00 GMT the only notable data set to be released was the US Crude Oil Inventories data at 16:00 GMT. Although it is not expected to impact gold prices.For more in-depth analysis of this week's fundamental economic events watch the weekly Monday's Poking the Economic Calendar webinar, which is live each Monday at 12:00 both on Dukascopy telefision and YouTube.
XAU/USD short term forecast
In regards to the near-term future, the gold will trade sideways to stay at the 1,210.00 level. Besides, the 200-hour simple moving average should resist the yellow metal during the trading session on Thursday.
Hourly Chart
The first scenario that was described yesterday is becoming reality. The currency exchange rate has bounced off the support of the dominant ascending channel pattern.
However, that does not indicate that a surge is set to occur easily. Instead, the pair is still facing the resistance of the 100-day simple moving average and the monthly pivot point at 1,213.85. Only if these levels are passed, the range up to the 1,245.00 will be free from technical resistance.
Daily Chart
Massive amount of buy orders
Traders remain long on gold. 71% of all open positions were long on gold. Although, note that there are a lot of gold holders not traders involved in this statistic. The sentiment has decreased by two percent since Wednesday, as some short term traders have taken profit.
Meanwhile, in the 1000 base point range 61% of trader set up orders were set to buy on Wednesday. On Thursday, only 53% of trader set up orders were set to buy.
The long sentiment has decreased after the recent surge. It is assumed that it occurred due to traders taking advantage of it, taking profit and staying out until the next resistance levels are broken.