- SWFX market sentiment is 74% bullish
- Pending orders in the 1000-pip range are set to buy in 64% of all cases
- Macroeconomic data will influence markets on Wednesday
The yellow metal's prices plummeted down to a dominant support line, as expected. However, the future remains slightly unclear due to the event.
Oil price have decreased after the US Crude Oil Inventories data release on Wednesday at 14:30 GMT. The one-minute candle lost 57 pips, or 0.77% right after the data release. In the next minutes the rate was trading at the 74.80 level.
The Energy Information Administration released the US Crude Inventories data that came out lower-than-expected of 8M, compare to forecasted 1.1M.
No data impacting gold prices until Wednesday
As it is the second week of the month, it is almost empty on the economic calendars. Namely there are only three worth mentioning events scheduled for this week.
First two macroeconomic data releases will occur on Wednesday. At 08:30 GMT the GDP and Manufacturing Production of the United Kingdom will be released. Afterwards, at 12:30 GMT the US PPI and Core PPI data sets will be out.
The third event will be the publication of the US CPI and Core CPI data at 12:30 GMT on Wednesday.
All of the mentioned data releases will be covered by Dukascopy Analytics on the bank's live webinar platform. The webinars will start ten minutes before the data is set to be published.
XAU/USD short term forecast
In regards to the near-term future, most likely, the rate will move downwards due to the resistance of the monthly pivot point at the 1,195.43 and the resistance of the 200-hour simple moving average. It is expected that the rate will trade at the 1,192.00 level during the day.
On the other side, the rate might surge upwards to break the resistance of the monthly pivot point to take its support to surge upwards to trade at the 1,198.00 level on Monday.
Hourly Chart
The daily chart shows all of the patterns that were discovered during the recent full review of the chart. It can be observed that the commodity price is set to meet with the upper trend line of a large scale descending pattern.
However, the recent decline down to the medium pattern possesses risk, as the support might not hold and the rate might resume its long term descend.
Daily Chart
Sentiment remains long
For the second trading session in a row the total proportion of long positions has increased by 2%. On Monday, Swiss Traders were long on the metal in 74% of all cases.
Meanwhile, most trader set up pending orders are set to buy the metal by closing short positions or opening additional long positions. Namely, 56% of all trader set up orders are set to buy the metal under various conditions.
The fundamental events that have occurred during the last couple of weeks have not affected the opinion of short term traders on the Swiss Foreign Exchange. They continue to long the yellow metal.