- SWFX market sentiment is 75% bullish
- 70% of pending orders in 1000-pip range are set to BUY Gold
- US Consumer Price Index at 12:30 GMT
Gold is surging, ignoring almost all levels. The surge began when the metal broke already insignificant simple moving averages. Main fact is that it faced no additional resistance as high as the 1,215.00 level on Thursday morning.
Oil prices have decreased after the US Crude Oil Inventories data release on Wednesday at 14:30 GMT. The one-minute candle lost 22 pips or 0.31% after which, the rate surged upwards to trade at the 70.80 level.
The Energy Information Administration released the US Crude Levels data that came out lower-than-expected of negative 5.3M, compare to forecasted negative 1.3M.
The Dukascopy analysts were not expecting the price drop of negative 22 pips or 0.31% at the release time. The crew predicted the price surge at the release time, but the expectations were not fulfilled this time.
The released number is putting stockpiles 3% below their five-year average for the US Crude Oil Inventory according to the Energy Information Administration.
US CPI at 12:30 in focus
On Thursday, gold prices might be influenced by the changes in the US Dollar strength caused by a macroeconomic data release. Namely, the US Consumer Price Index data will be published at 12:30 GMT
The event will be covered by Dukascopy Analytics in a live webinar. The webinar will begin at 12:20 GMT.
XAU/USD short term forecast
The rate passed all technical indicators on Wednesday. In regards to the near future, the rate will move upwards to the 61.80% Fibonacci retracement level or it will reveal reference points to draw a new pattern.
However, gold may pass through the medium channel line to retrace back to the 1,200.00 mark. The rate has no support level to thwart such a move.
Hourly Chart
The recent surge has provided the opportunity to use the low levels for the drawing of a new ascending channel pattern. Although, note that fundamental events might once more push the yellow metal prices in a way that smashes technical chart patterns.
Daily Chart
Retail traders go long on gold
Instead of the previous 70% bullishness on the Swiss Foreign Exchange, 75% of traders were long on Thursday. This indicates clearly that buying occurred yesterday.
Meanwhile, even more buy orders have appeared. Previously 60% of orders were set to buy the metal. On Thursday morning already 67% of all trader set up pending orders were set to buy the metal.
Meanwhile, at other marketplaces long term sentiment remains persistent. At OANDA 73% of traders are long. Likewise, SAXO Bank traders were 70% long on the yellow metal's price.