- SWFX market sentiment is 62% bullish (-1%)
- 55% of pending orders in 1000-pip range are set to BUY Gold
- No fundamental releases, Dukascopy weekly webinar at 1200GMT
Gold is starting to show some signs of a recovery.
The Census Bureau released monthly Retail Sales data that came out better-than-expected of 0.5%, compare to forecasted 0.4%.
Pablo Piovano, an Economist from FXStreet, said: "In addition, the NY Empire State manufacturing index came in above expectations at 22.60 for the current month, a tad lower than June's 25.00 reading. Looking ahead, spot is poised to remain under scrutiny in light of headlines from the Trump-Putin meeting and the upcoming testimonies by Fed's J.Powell on Tuesday and Wednesday."
Quiet day
The economic calendar is empty in this session. Tune in for a Dukascopy webinar at 1200GMT.
XAU/USD tries to push higher
The 55-hour SMA continues to lead the yellow metal lower for the second consecutive week. The strong surge mid-Thursday was followed by two other tests of this line. A successful breakout should lead to appreciation in this session. The nearest target is the 200-hour SMA at 1,245.00. Technical indicators on the 1H and 4H time-frames are likewise tended northwards.
If looking at patterns, the rate has been fluctuating around the senior channel line for several days, while the dashed junior channel was tested yesterday.
It is expected that Gold tries to move towards its upper line. The nearest support is the monthly S2 at 1,200.00. This is also the pair's lowest position since July 2017 that should work as a very strong support barrier.
Hourly Chart
Gold has been guided in a descending channel against the US Dollar since mid-April. During these few months, the commodity has depreciated by nearly 10%.
Technical indicators on the daily time-frame are located in the oversold territory. This suggests that the pair's long-term movement should be tended north. The expected target during the following weeks is the breached senior channel and the 200- and 100-day SMAs near 1,300.00.
Daily Chart
Bulls dominate sentiment
62% open positions of SWFX market traders are long. The same situation is apparent with pending orders which were standing at 57% mid-day.
The data reveals that although the bullion has retreated, retail traders have even opened new long positions in the expectations of a surge. Most likely, most of the traders see the continuation of a decline as a statistic improbability.
OANDA traders are bullish on the commodity with 84% of open positions being long on the XAU/USD pair today. Saxo Bank traders are likewise bullish with 71% long positions. This shows that industrial traders are considerably bullish on Gold, while retail ones are more cautious.