- SWFX market sentiment is 58% bullish
- 59% of pending orders in 1000-pip range are set to BUY Gold
- Central bank review and Canadian GDP at 12:00 GMT
The yellow metal had paused its decline on Friday morning.However, at the end of Thursday's trading session it had even attempted to pierce the lower trend line of the long term descending channel pattern. Due to that Dukascopy Analytics assumes that everyone, who was short for the past few trading sessions has managed to close their positions properly.
The Bureau of Economic Analysis released quarterly Gross Domestic Product data that came out lower-than-expected of 2.0%, and was also lower than the previous period.
According to Mario Blascak, the European Chief Analyst: "The largest positive contributions to GDP stem from nonresidential fixed investment, personal consumption expenditures, and exports. The biggest drag in PCE, exports, state and local government spending, federal government spending and a downturn in residential fixed investment. "
Combined webinar at 12:00 GMT
The week will end with a Dukascopy Analytics webinar that will consist of an article presentation and a data release coverage.
The first part of the webinar will concentrate on the recently published central bank policy changing article, which introduces traders to the longer term situation and the background of the currency markets. This part will begin at 12:00 GMT.
The second part will consist of the live coverage of the monthly release of the Canadian GDP. The release is most likely going to cause a bounce in the currency exchange rates that involve the Canadian Dollar. The coverage will begin at 12:20 GMT.
Gold pressured by 55-hour SMA
Gold still shows some weakness against the US Dollar, as it is being pressured lower since mid-June. By Friday morning, the pair had fallen down to the bottom boundaries of two channels, the most senior of which was formed in March.
The yellow metal has likewise returned to test the 55-hour SMA at 1,253.00. In case this moving average is breached, the rate is likely to aim for the following resistance cluster set by the 55-period (4H) and the 100-hour SMAs and the monthly S2 at 1.260.00. A strong bullish sentiment could send it even higher gains towards 1,265.00.
It is apparent that Gold remained stable during the previous session which suggests that a significant decline should not occur. The nearest support is the junior channel near 1,247.00.
In general, it is not expected that a massive fall occurs today. If the 55-hour SMA remains intact, Gold should continue gradually moving lower along this line.
Hourly Chart
On the daily chart last Thursday Dukascopy Analysts spotted a new descending channel down pattern, which has guided the metal's decline since the middle of April.
As the monthly S2 was passed, the channel's lower trend line is set to support the commodity price down until it reaches the historical low level near the 1,235.00 mark. Moreover, at that level the third monthly pivot point support level is located at.
Daily Chart
Swiss traders are still bullish
58% open positions of SWFX market traders were long during the morning hours. The sentiment had not changed since last Friday, as it was 57% bullish for a whole week.
Meanwhile, trader set up orders remain mostly bullish with 57% of them being set to buy the yellow mental. Previously, nearly 55% of orders were to buy. However, it is a massive decline, compared with the previously observed 70%.
By exploring the above described changes of the sentiment it can be clearly seen that there was selling occurring, as retail traders took profits. However, there aren't that many Gold speculators, as the holders still have the majority. Namely, the sentiment rarely declines below the 55% bullish level.
OANDA traders are bullish on the pair with 80% of open positions are going long on the XAU/USD pair today.
At the same time, Saxo Bank traders were likewise bullish with 75% long positions.