- The market sentiment of the Swiss Foreign Exchange is 51% long
- 52% of pending orders in the 100-pip are to SELL
- CB Consumer Confidence release at 14:00 GMT
The US Dollar has extended its decline against the Japanese Yen on Tuesday. However, the decline seemed to have been already stopped by mid-day by the previously speculated support line of a medium scale ascending channel pattern.
The Census Bureau simultaneously released two data sets, where Durable Goods Orders data came out lower-than-expected of negative 1.7%, which was one of the main reason for currency price to weaken.
In the contrary, Core Durable Goods Orders came out better-than-expected of 0.9%, which didn't let the EUR/USD currency pair to weaken too much, leaving the overall price fluctuations flat.
First data set on Tuesday
Tuesday will start the week for the macroeconomic data release traders. However, the day will be very light, compared to the rest of the week.
Namely, the US CB Consumer Confidence survey results will be published at 14:00 GMT. Historically this release has caused near ten base point fluctuations.
The data release will be covered by Dukascopy Analytics. The start of the coverage on the bank's webinar platform is set to begin at 13:50 GMT. One can join by googling the webinars or finding them in the TV section.
USD/JPY fails to surpass 55-hour SMA
Monday's trading session was very calm for the USD/JPY exchange rate with the pair trading in an extremely narrow range slightly below the 55-hour SMA. This situation changed on Tuesday morning when risk-averse investors shifted their funds to the Yen as a safe-haven currency. Thus, the rate returned to its two-week low of 109.00.It is more likely that the given pair falls even lower, as the 200-period SMA on the 4H chart was surpassed earlier in the day. This would push the rate closer to the weekly S1 near 108.50. This bearish scenario should likewise be confirmed by the US Dollar failing to surpass the 55– and 100-hour SMAs circa 109.50.
In case this area is breached, the rate should target the weekly PP or the 200-hour SMA at 109.90 and 110.20, respectively.
Hourly Chart
On Monday, Duakscopy analysts noticed a new possible ascending channel pattern, whose lover trend line might provide support in the future.
However, that trend line did just the expected already on Tuesday, as the rate managed to pass the support levels near the 109.00 mark an decline down to the next support level.
Namely, a combination of the lower trend line and the weekly S1 managed to stop the decline. Meanwhile, not that the 55-day SMA was approaching from the downside near a very strong support cluster near the 108.10 mark.
Daily chart
SWFX traders have become almost neutral on the USD/JPY pair, as 51% of open positions were long. Previously, the sentiment was near the neutral zone, but slightly bearish, as 52% of open positions were short.
Meanwhile, trader set up orders are bullish with 53% of them being set to buy the Greenback. Previously, also 53% of orders were to buy.
This indicates that the orders might be set up to buy the rate, as it retraces back upwards, and short positions of speculative short term retail traders might already be closed.
The market sentiment of OANDA traders has decreased, as 53% of their traders are holding long positions. This is a decline, compared to the previous 59%. In addition, the number of long positions of Saxo bank traders is 52%. On Monday, 55% were long.
Spreads (avg, pip) / Trading volume / Volatility