- SWFX market sentiment is once more 51% bullish
- 53% of pending orders in the 100-pip are to SELL
- Upcoming fundamental events: ECOFIN meetings, US Core PCE Price Index m/m and Personal Spending m/m, Chicago PMI
The pair continues to move in a short-term descending channel; this junior pattern, however, is unlikely to hold for long.
The Census Bureau released two data simultaneously, where Core Durable Goods Orders came out less-than-expected of 0.0%.
However, Durable Goods Orders came out better-than-expected of 2.6%. Moreover, Unemployment Claims turned out to be 209K in March.
No major market movers today
This week is likely to start calmly for the EUR/USD exchange rate, as this session includes only three fundamental releases and all of moderate importance. The US Bureau of Economic Analysis is set to publish the Core PCE Price Index and Personal Spending for March at 1230GMT. The Chicago PMI is published at 1345GMT.
USD/JPY returns to 109.20
Despite some minor fluctuations, the US Dollar remained stable against the Yen on Friday. The pair breached the 55-hour SMA, but a further fall was limited by the 100-hour moving average.The pair still remains trading in a short-term channel down; thus, it is more likely that the Greenback continues to edge lower in this session, as well, especially if the 55-hour SMA and the upper channel line are located nearby at 109.25. In case this cluster is surpassed, the next resistance barrier is the weekly R1 at 109.85.
Meanwhile, it is expected that the pair tries to reach the breached seven-week wedge. The nearest support is set by the weekly PP and the monthly R2 at 108.75. The same bearish sentiment is likely to prevail during the following sessions, as well.
Hourly Chart
The US Dollar has strengthened notably against the Japanese Yen since mid-March. This movement has guided the pair past the 55- and 100-day SMAs. The latter was breached last week.
Daily technical indicators suggest that the pair should soon mark a bearish reversal, as the US Dollar is approaching the overbought territory. It is possible that the pair still reaches the 200-day SMA and the 38.20% Fibonacci retracement prior to reversing to the downside.
Daily chart
SWFX traders remain bullish on USD/JPY, as 51% of open positions were long during the morning hours (-1%). Set up orders are likewise bullish with 59% of them being set to buy the Greenback.
The market sentiment of OANDA traders remains strongly bullish with 59% of them holding long positions (+1%). In addition, the number of long positions of Saxo bank traders is 61% (+3%).
Spreads (avg, pip) / Trading volume / Volatility