- SWFX market sentiment is 73% bullish
- Pending orders in the 100-pip range are 53% to SELL
- Empty Monday
On Monday the US Dollar suddenly began a rebound against the monthly PP near the 104.70 mark against the Japanese Yen. However, by the middle of the day's trading session the currency exchange rate had already encountered the resistance of the 55-hour SMA, which had paused the surge.
The Greenback strengthened against its European counterpart, following the US core durable goods orders data released on Friday. The EUR/USD currency pair lost 17 pips, or 0.14%, to continue fluctuating in the 1.2336 area.
The Census Bureau reported that the country's core durable goods orders came in better than expected, posting 1.2% uptick in February and surpassing the forecast of a 0.5% surge.
One of the main reasons for this rebound was the increase in shipments of core capital goods. Moreover, non-defence capital goods orders recorded the biggest increase in five months. This surge indicates that business spending is set to continue.
First notable event will be on Tuesday
The US Dollar continues to lose due to fundamental events that aren't scheduled. Due to that reason newsfeeds and risk management have taken the attention.
However, there are some events scheduled for this week, which might cause medium fluctuations in the currency pairs and commodity prices that have the US Dollar as one of the financial instruments being exchanged.
The first notable event will be the release of the CB Consumer Confidence on Tuesday at 15:00 GMT. The data release will be covered by the Dukascopy research team on the bank's live webinar platform. Tune in ten minutes before the data is released to see the cover.
USD/JPY points to recovery
Following two consecutive sessions of decline, the US Dollar entered a period of consolidation on Friday.Given that technical indicators are already showing signs of recovery, it is likely that the pair eventually manages to accelerate from the newly-formed 2017/2018 low of 104.67 and approach a trend-line located near 105.80. This yearly low is likewise reinforced by the monthly S1. In order to fulfil the aforementioned scenario, the pair still needs to overcome the 55-hour SMA.
Despite technical signals pointing to soon appreciation, the weakness of the US Dollar which could be driven by such global political developments as US tariffs on Chinese imports are likely to push the rate even lower past the bottom boundary of a long-term channel and towards the weekly S1 at 104.50 and 104.05, respectively.
Hourly Chart
After the recent events and the breaking of the previously drawn massive scale channel down pattern a full review of the situation has been conducted.
As it turns out, if one uses a different reference point for the lower trend line of the channel down pattern, its support hasn't been reached yet. The modified channel's support line is more likely to be touched near the 104.00 mark.
Daily chart
SWFX traders are still on the long side, as 73% of open positions were bullish during the morning hours. However, trader set up orders remain bullish, as 57% of trader set up orders were to buy the US Dollar in favour to the Japanese Yen.
Meanwhile, the market sentiment of OANDA traders remains strongly bullish with 69% long positions. In addition, Saxo bank traders are 59% bullish in regards to this pair.
Spreads (avg, pip) / Trading volume / Volatility