- SWFX market sentiment is 55% bearish
- 60% of pending orders in the 100-pip range are to SELL
- Nearest resistance is located near the 111.50 mark
- Upcoming events: US Flash Manufacturing PMI, US Flash Services PMI
Commerce Department stated that the US durable goods orders fell sharply 1.2% in October, while its core measure marked sligtly weaker increase of 0.4% in the same period.
However, the solid growth trend was sutained, pointing to the stronger contribution to the GDP in the Q4. Meanwhile, the FOMS minutes suggested that the key interest rate could be raised soon, if the medium-term prospectives remain upbeat.
Minor US fundamentals
This trading session is expected to be calm in terms of fundamentals, as only two minor events from the US are scheduled for mid-Friday, namely, the Flash Manufacturing PMI and Flash Services PMI for the current month at 1445GMT.
USD/JPY tests 55-hour SMA
Due to beginning of Thanksgiving holidays in the United States, which led to reduced liquidity, the currency rate indeed spent previous trading session between the weekly S1 at 111.40 and support at the 111.10 level. But as it made a rebound from the bottom trend-line of a two-week long descending channel, in first hours of this trading session the surge resumed.At the moment, the pair is the testing the 55-hour SMA, which might lead to short-term retreat. Nevertheless, this barrier should not prevent the pair from reaching the opposite side of the pattern.
Thus the general question is whether the buck will manage to soar to the pre-fall 112.10 level or it will be forced to make another rebound amid additional pressure exercised by the falling 100-hour SMA as well as the monthly S1 at 112.05.
Hourly chart
Following the massive plunge on Wednesday, USD/JPY remained almost flat yesterday, indicating that bulls might eventually take the upper hand.
The US Dollar had already tested pushed up to the weekly S1 at 111.40 early on Friday. This level is likely to surrender; however, the strong resistance of the 200- and 100-day SMAs at 111.70 should limit further gains.
Daily chart
The bearish SWFX sentiment has remained at the same level on Friday, as 55% of open positions are short (-5%). Meanwhile, 52% of pending orders are to buy the Greenback (-5%).
OANDA traders are bullish on the pair, as 59% of open positions are long on Friday (+3%). In addition, the number of open positions of Saxo Bank clients is 58% long (+2%).