- 51% of all pending orders are to buy the US Dollar
- 64% of all open positions are short
- The nearest significant resistance is around 113.36
- Downside potential down to 111.80
- Upcoming Events: US Final GDP; US Unemployment Claims
Pending home sales in the United States dropped for the third consecutive month in May, official figures revealed on Wednesday. The National Association of Realtors reported that pending home sales fell 0.8% last month, following April's downwardly revised drop of 1.7% and falling behind market analysts' expectations for an increase of 0.9%. According to Wednesday's data, supply shortages mainly drove the fall. The supply of homes available for sale dropped more than 8% year-over-year in May.
Other data released on Wednesday showed that US crude oil inventories rose 0.1M barrels in the week ended June 23, following the prior week's drop of 2.5M barrels, whereas analysts anticipated a drop of 2.1M barrels during the reported week. Meanwhile, weekly production declined 100K barrels per day to 9.3M bpd, marking the largest fall since July 2016. However, some analysts suggested that the production decline was temporary and was triggered by the Cindy Storm in the Gulf of Mexico and maintenance works in Alaska. Despite the unexpected US crude inventory build, oil prices rose shortly after the release.
US Final GDP
As the speeches have shook the markets on Wednesday, more or less a calmer situation is to be expected on Thursday. The US Final GDP and the US Unemployment Claims will be published at 12:30 GMT. The data release will be covered by the Dukascopy research team in real time on the bank's webinar platform.
USD/JPY fails to gain more
It can be observed that the USD/JPY currency pair did not increase its volatility massively during the panel discussion of the top central bankers. Instead the US Dollar once more attempted to break above the 112.40 mark against the Japanese Yen. For a rather unclear reason that level has been providing resistance in the recent trading sessions. It is possible that the 112.40 mark is a benchmark for the Bank of Japan or a silent player in the form of a large institution, which has enough funds to change the price of the currency pair. However, from a technical perspective the pair is still set to gain more, as the 55-hour SMA is approaching the rate from the downside just above the 112 level.Hourly chart
USD/JPY has approached an intermediate down-trend near the 113.00 mark that may pressure the US Dollar to the downside. This level, however, might not be reached today if the market lacks strong upside movers. Moreover, the upper Bollinger band is providing a hindering resistance near the 112.75 mark. Meanwhile, the rate is supported by the 100-day SMA and the monthly PP at 111.80. Taking into account intraday technical signals, it is likely that this range persists in this trading session.
Daily chart
SWFX market sentiment has turned bearish in this session, as 64% of all open positions are short, compared to 53% on Wednesday. Meanwhile, 64% of pending orders are still to buy the Greenback.
OANDA clients remain with a bullish sentiment, as 60% of open positions are long. Meanwhile, Saxo Bank clients have become neutral.
Spreads (avg, pip) / Trading volume / Volatility
Traders remain bullish on US Dollar
Traders expect that the US Dollar may appreciate up to the 113.40 mark against the Yen in three months' time. 63% of all forecasts fall above the current spot price which is located near the 112.50 mark. The majority of voters expect the US Dollar to cost somewhere between 114.00 and 115.50 yen in three months, with 21% of survey participants choosing this trading range.