The scheduled April CPI release on, May 12, 2026, represents the primary fundamental catalyst for a volatility expansion, as well 10-year note auction results may bring additional adjustment of gold pricing.
XAU/USD short-term forecast
The H1 timeframe reveals XAU/USD in a state of late-session consolidation, tightly orbiting the 40-period SMA at the $4706.42 pivot. This price compression follows a sustained recovery from the $4557.00 lows, with the current horizontal trajectory suggesting a temporary exhaustion of momentum as traders de-risk following the NFP release. The RSI (60) holding at $55.46 reinforces a neutral-positive sentiment, indicating that the market is not yet overextended and remains positioned for a potential retest of the $4828.27 resistance level once liquidity returns. Consequently, the hourly structure remains technically constructive so long as the $4700.00 psychological support holds, marking this zone as the critical baseline for next week's opening volatility.
XAU/USD daily charts review
The Daily time-frame illustrates a constructive recovery phase as XAU/USD aggressively defends the structural floor at $4557.73, effectively neutralizing the bearish pressure observed throughout late April. The price action is currently challenging the SMA (40), signaling a transition from a corrective retracement toward a potential trend-continuation cycle.This technical repair is corroborated by the Daily MACD, which is currently executing a bullish convergence as negative histogram momentum dissipates, suggesting that the path of least resistance is shifting toward the upside. While the market faces intermediate resistance near the local highs of $4740.00, the broader technical posture remains bullishly biased toward a retest of the $4828.27 statistical ceiling, provided the daily candles maintain a close above the current $4705.00 pivot.
Daily Candle Chart
Traders going long
68.48% of traders are currently holding long positions, indicating a strong bullish sentiment among retail participants. This represents a significant 36.96% increase in long positions, leaving only 31.52% of traders in short positions.