Economic Calendar
This week, the top event of them all is scheduled. On Wednesday, at 18:00 GMT, the US Federal Reserve is set to cut interest rates.
The market consensus is that the Fed will cut by 0.25%. However, some expect that the Fed might cut even 0.50%. In the case of the larger cut, the US Dollar would decline.
However, in most cases, there is more impact from the follow-up press conference than the rate announcement. The press conference of the Chairman of the US Federal Reserve Jerome Powell is scheduled for 18:30 GMT.
Prior to the Fed event, some volatility might be caused by a surprise in the US monthly Retail Sales data sets at 12:30 GMT.
On Friday, watch the Japanese Yen during the Asian session. The Bank of Japan is expected to announce its monetary policy. Despite the BoJ Policy Rate being forecast to remain unchanged, markets might move due to comments from the central bankers.
The BoJ does not give a predetermined time for its announcements, as it wants to avoid unnecessary speculation from market participants.
USD/JPY hourly chart analysis
A move above the 140.80 level, the 50-hour SMA and the 141.00 mark is expected to face the combination of the 100-hour simple moving average, the 141.65/142.00 range and the weekly simple pivot point at 141.62. In the meantime, note the descending 200-hour simple moving average. If these levels fail, the weekly R1 and the 143.00 level might act as resistance.On the other hand, a resumption of the prior decline is expected to find some support in the late 2023 low level at 140.35 and the recent low levels near 139.50 and the weekly S1 simple pivot point at 139.44. In general, it might be the case that the whole 139.40/139.60 range is confirmed as support in the near term future.
Hourly Chart
USD/JPY daily candle chart analysis
On the daily candle chart, the rate has passed below the August low level at 141.75. The USD/JPY is approaching the major support range at 137.40/139.40.
Read More: Technical Analysis
Traders remain long
On Monday, Dukascopy traders positions were bullish, as open position volume was 74% long.
Meanwhile, pending orders in the 100-point range around the rate were 88% to buy.
On Thursday, open position volume was 70% long and pending orders were 68% to sell.
Meanwhile, pending orders in the 100-point range around the rate were 88% to buy.
On Thursday, open position volume was 70% long and pending orders were 68% to sell.