Economic Calendar Analysis
On Friday, at 13:30 GMT the US Producers Price Index and Core Producers Price Index are set to reveal inflation changes in the United States at the production level. In general, it is assumed that producer level inflation is followed afterwards by consumer level inflation, which the US policymakers want to reduce.
Next week, the US Consumer Price Inflation data is set to be published on Tuesday at 13:30 GMT. The inflation is set to reveal whether the Federal Reserve is successful in its policy at reducing inflation.
On Wednesday, the top event of them all will take place. At 19:00 GMT, the US Federal Reserve will release its Federal Open Market Committee Statement and Economic Projections. The central bank is expected to hike its base interest rate from 4.00% up to 4.50%.
On Thursday, at 13:15 GMT, the European Central Bank will publish its Monetary Policy Statement and with it the Main Refinancing rate. It is expected that the ECB could follow the example of the Federal Reserve. Note that most volatility occurs during the follow up press conference. The press conference is scheduled for 13:45 GMT.
Later on, at 13:30 GMT, the US Retails Sales data and Empire State Manufacturing Index might cause an adjustment in the value of the US Dollar.
The week will end with the publication of Markit Services and Manufacturing sector Purchasing Managers Index survey data. Note that most impact occurs due to the French and German data at 08:15 and 08:30 GMT. The European data is followed by US data at 14:45 GMT.
EUR/USD hourly chart
An extension of the ongoing surge of the Euro against the US Dollar might encounter resistance in the 1.0600 mark and the weekly R1 simple pivot point at 1.0622. Note that the 1.0600 level represents a strong resistance and support level.On the other hand, a decline of the pair is set to look for support first in the 1.0550 level. Afterwards, the 50 and 100-hour simple moving averages might act as support near 1.0500. In the case of a decline below 1.0500, the combination of the 200-hour simple moving average and the weekly simple pivot point near 1.0460.
Hourly Chart
EUR/USD daily chart's review
On the daily candle chart, the recent surge has moved the rate once again above the 1.0350/1.0400 zone. The zone impacted the rate throughout 2021 and 2022 as support and resistance.Meanwhile, it appears that despite being pierced, the 200-day simple moving average has been acting as support.
In regards to the future, note that the 1.0600 and 1.0800 levels acted as resistance in May and June. Most recently, it was spotted that the 1.0600 had acted as resistance on December 5.
Daily chart
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Traders remain short
On Thursday, on the Swiss Foreign Exchange, trader open positions were short, as 59% of open position volume was in short positions.
Meanwhile, trader set up pending orders in the 100-pip range around the pair were 52% to sell the Euro against the USD.
On Friday, the sentiment was 60% short and orders were 51% to sell.