- SWFX market sentiment is 64% bullish (+3%)
- 57% of pending orders in 100-pip range are to SELL the Euro
- Upcoming fundamental events: Eurozone's Final CPI y/y; US Empire State Manufacturing Index, Capacity Utilisation Rate, Industrial Production and Preliminary UoM Consumer Sentiment
The Euro is calm this morning after the massive 2.28% plunge on Thursday.
The Markit released Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index data that came out better-than-expected of 54.4, compared to the 53.9 in the previous period.
"At first glance, the mild acceleration in the rate of output growth and rise in the headline PMI would appear positive," Rob Dobson, a Markit director, said. "However, scratch beneath the surface and the rebound in the PMI from April's 17-month low is far from convincing."
Minor US fundamentals
Only data of medium importance are released today. Eurostat will publish the Final Consumer Price Index for the Euro zone countries at 0900GMT. This release tends to have muted effect, as the CPI Flash Estimate and the German Preliminary CPI are released about 15 days earlier.
The remaining part of this session is allocated to US fundamentals. The Empire State Manufacturing Index is published at 1230GMT, while the Capacity Utilisation Rate and Industrial Production - at 1315GMT. The Preliminary Consumer Sentiment by the University of Michigan comes out at 1400GMT.
EUR/USD plunges 2.28% after ECB decision
As a result, the rate lost 2.28% during the previous session and consequently fell down to the weekly S2 at 1.5073. Given that the pair has been lingering near this area for several hours and technical indicators are located in the strongly oversold territory, it is likely that bulls try to regain some lost positions today.
A possible target is the 1.17 area which is limited by the 100-period (4H) SMA. Hourly moving averages are likewise located nearby.
Hourly Chart
The common European currency has fallen considerably against the US Dollar since mid-April which marks a 5.95% plunge within a couple of weeks. The pair started to recover on May 30 after hitting a six-month low of 1.1550. It is expected that this up-move continues in the medium term.
The 1.18 mark should eventually surrender, thus allowing the pair to appreciate until the 55- and 200-day SMAs and the monthly R1 near 1.20.
Daily Chart
Bulls remain in charge
EUR/USD remains strongly bullish with 64% of open positions being long (+3%).
The outlook for the two currencies against the rest of the traded financial instruments is as follows: the Euro is 57% bullish and the US Dollar is 61% bearish.
OANDA traders are bullish on the pair with 61% of open positions being long today (+7%). Saxo bank has likewise returned in the bullish territory with 52% long positions.
Spreads (avg, pip) / Trading volume / Volatility