- SWFX market sentiment is 61% bullish (-1%)
- 51% of pending orders in 100-pip range are to SELL the Euro
- Upcoming fundamental events: ECB Main Refinancing Rate and Press Conference; US (Core) Retail Sales m/m and Unemployment Claims
The 55- and 100-hour SMAs could pressure the Euro higher today.
The Markit released Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index data that came out better-than-expected of 54.4, compared to the 53.9 in the previous period.
"At first glance, the mild acceleration in the rate of output growth and rise in the headline PMI would appear positive," Rob Dobson, a Markit director, said. "However, scratch beneath the surface and the rebound in the PMI from April's 17-month low is far from convincing."
ECB publishes its benchmark rate
The EUR/USD exchange rate could be pushed from both the Euro and the US side today. The European Central Bank publishes its Main Refinancing Rate at 11:45GMT. The market expects this benchmark rate to remain at 0.00%. The ECB Press Conference is scheduled 45 minutes later at 1230GMT.
The US Census Bureau will release the monthly Retail Sales and its core reading at 1230GMT. The US weekly Unemployment Claims are likewise published at the same time.
EUR/USD accelerates from 1.1740
Wednesday's trading session was beneficial for bulls, as the Euro managed to gain 65 pips against its American counterpart during the second part of the day. This surge started when the pair failed to move below the 55-period (4H) and 200-hour SMAs at 1.1740. This level has likewise been a strong resistance/support level since May 21.Along the way, the rate breached the upper boundary of a one-week descending triangle. This should result in further advance that is expected to occur if the 200-period (4H) SMA at 1.1813 is breached. The daily high in this scenario should be the weekly R1 at 1.1856.
In the meantime, the pair should be supported by the 55-, 100– and 200-hour SMAs and the monthly and weekly PPs in the 1.1755/1.1780 range. Fundamentals are likely to introduce volatility today.
Hourly Chart
The common European currency has fallen considerably against the US Dollar since mid-April which marks a 5.95% plunge within a couple of weeks. The pair started to recover on May 30 after hitting a six-month low of 1.1550. It is expected that this up-move continues in the medium term.
The Euro breached the monthly PP and the 23.60% Fibonacci retracement near 1.1765. The 1.18 mark should eventually surrender, thus allowing the pair to appreciate until the 55- and 200-day SMAs and the monthly R1 near 1.20.
Daily Chart
Bulls remain in charge
EUR/USD remains strongly bullish with 61% of open positions being long (-1%).
The outlook for the two currencies against the rest of the traded financial instruments is as follows: the Euro is 56% bullish and the US Dollar is 60% bearish.
OANDA traders are bullish on the pair with 53% of open positions being long today. Meanwhile, the market sentiment of Saxo bank is 53% bearish.
Spreads (avg, pip) / Trading volume / Volatility