- The market sentiment of the Swiss Foreign Exchange is 52% long
- 54% of pending orders in the 100-pip are to SELL
- ADP Employment Change and Preliminary US GDP at 12:00 GMT
On Wednesday, the USD/JPY currency exchange rate traded above the weekly S1 at 108.44. Moreover, the currency exchange rate had a strong support from a strong support cluster just below the 108.20 level.
The Census Bureau simultaneously released two data sets, where Durable Goods Orders data came out lower-than-expected of negative 1.7%, which was one of the main reason for currency price to weaken.
In the contrary, Core Durable Goods Orders came out better-than-expected of 0.9%, which didn't let the EUR/USD currency pair to weaken too much, leaving the overall price fluctuations flat.
Busy day on Wednesday for macro traders
Wednesday's trading session is set to be the second busiest of the week. Dukascopy Analytics are expecting notable volatility increases during the release of three macroeconomic data sets.
First and most important will be the time starting from 12:00 GMT to 12:30 GMT, as the ADP Non-Farm Employment data will be released at 12:15 GMT and the US Preliminary GDP at 12:30 GMT. Dukascopy will have two analysts covering the releases live on the bank's webinar platform.
In addition, later in the day at 13:50 GMT the coverage of the Bank of Canada Rate Statement will take place. However, this release is set to only influence Canadian Dollar pairs.
USD/JPY touches senior channel
Then Yen was strengthened by risk-averse investors on Tuesday. This resulted in the USD/JPY exchange rate falling 116 pips down to the 108.20 area. Further decline was stopped by the strong support of the 55– and 100-day SMAs and the 38.20% Fibonacci retracement.It is expected that this southern barrier, likewise reinforced by the senior channel line, remains intact today, thus showing some upside potential for bulls. In line with this scenario, the Greenback should approach the 55– and 100-hour SMAs and the 50.0% Fibonacci line at 109.15.
In case bulls push the pair above this territory, the following notable resistance is the 200-hour moving average and the weekly PP at 109.95. This level should likewise serve as the daily high.
Hourly Chart
On Monday, Dukascopy analysts noticed a new possible ascending channel pattern, whose lover trend line might provide support in the future.
However, that trend line did the expected already on Tuesday, as the rate managed to pass the support levels near the 109.00 mark and decline down to the next support level.
Namely, a combination of the lower trend line and the weekly S1 managed to stop the decline. Meanwhile, note that the 55-day SMA was approaching from the downside near a very strong support cluster near the 108.10 mark.
Daily chart
On Wednesday, 52% of open Swiss Foreign Exchange USD/JPY positions were long. Previously, the sentiment was almost neutral, as 51% of open positions were long.
Meanwhile, trader set up orders are bullish with 54% of them being set to buy the Greenback. Previously, 53% of orders were to buy.
This indicates that the orders might be set up to buy the rate, as it retraces back upwards, and short positions of speculative short term retail traders might already be closed.
The market sentiment of OANDA traders has bounced back up, as 59% of their traders are holding long positions. There was a drop down to 53% on Tuesday. In addition, the number of long positions of Saxo bank traders is 58%. On Tuesday, 52% were long.
Spreads (avg, pip) / Trading volume / Volatility