- 55% of pending orders in the 100-pip range are to SELL the Sterling
- SWFX market sentiment is 62% bullish
- Upcoming fundamental events: Preliminary UoM Consumer Sentiment
Given the strong resistance of the 200-hour SMA, the Sterling should not exceed the 1.3580 mark today .
The British Pound weakened against the Greenback, following the UK Official Bank Rate data release on Thursday. The GBP/USD currency pair lost 76 pips, or 0.56%, to continue going down to the 1.3478 level.
The Bank of England released four datasets simultaneously from which Official Bank Rate was left unchanged of 0.5% for the fifth time straight, and MPC Official Bank Rate Votes also stayed in the same proportions as from the last time of 2-0-7.
The Bank of England also released BOE Inflation Report and Monetary Policy Summary, but these data releases most probably were traded by algorithms, that are capable of reading the text and understand its context.
Fundamentally quiet session
This session is likely to be quiet in terms of fundamentals, as the only data release today is the Preliminary Consumer Sentiment published by the University of Michigan at 1400GMT.
Pound calm after yesterday's volatility
GBP/USD's movement was driven by fundamental events on Thursday. The Sterling was trading at its weekly high of 1.36 early in the day with further advance being halted by the weekly PP and 200-hour SMA.The pair fell aggressively in the wake of the BOE release, as rather disappointing economic data restricted the bank from hiking interest rates. Meanwhile, the pair's subsequent move in the opposite direction was caused by missed US CPI estimates.
By Friday morning, the Sterling had returned to the 55– and 100-hour SMAs at 1.3550. It is likely that this resistance level, likewise reinforced by the nearby-located 200-hour moving average, proves to be an unbreakable barrier today. Thus, a bearish move down to the weekly S1 at 1.3417 is a more probable scenario.
Hourly chart
Strong downside risks have been pushing the GBP/USD exchange rate considerably lower for the third consecutive week. As a result, the pair reached the 200-day SMA near 1.3530 last week and has since remained near this line.
Technical indicators on the daily time-frame are located in the overbought territory. Thus, this moving average might mark a reversal point from which the Pound should move towards the 1.40 mark during the following weeks.
Daily Chart
The bullish SWFX market sentiment has increased to 62% of open positions being long today. Meanwhile, 55% of pending orders remain to sell the Pound (-10%).
The market sentiment of OANDA traders is strongly bullish, as 61% of them are holding long positions (-5%). Saxo Bank clients share the same sentiment with 55% long positions (-1%).
Spreads (avg, pip) / Trading volume / Volatility