- 52% of pending orders in the 100-pip range are to BUY the Pound
- SWFX market sentiment is 52% bullish (+1%)
- Upcoming fundamental events: US (Core) Durable Goods Orders m/m, US Unemployment Claims
The Sterling is likely to decline today due to a strong resistance cluster at 1.3970.
The British Pound weakened against the Greenback, following the UK Retail Sales data release on Thursday. The GBP/USD currency pair lost 12 pips, or 0.09%, to continue fluctuating in the 1.4171 area.
The Office for National Statistics revealed lower-than-expected retail sales data for the month of March. Britain's sales volume declined by 1.2%, compared to 0.8% increase in the prior period.
One of the main reasons for such low consumer spending was due to the snow storms over the UK or as they call it: "Beast from the East", that discouraged people to go for a shopping, thus preventing the sales volume to increase to the forecast level.
US Core Durable Goods Orders
The US Durable Goods Orders during March and the weekly Unemployment Claims are published at 1230GMT. Analysts expect that the Core Durable Goods Orders should see a slight 0.5% increase, compared to a 1% gain during the preceding month.
GBP/USD remains calm this morning
The Sterling was driven by downside potential during the first part of Wednesday. The rate stabilised mid-session and was subsequently trading in a narrow 1.3928/57 range.It is expected that the pair increases its volatility soon and ends this slight movement sideways. Bulls might fail to break out northwards, as the 1.3960 level is reinforced by the 38.20% Fibonacci retracement and the 55– and 100-hour SMAs. This cluster could force the Pound lower towards the 1.39 mark, as likewise signalled by bearish technical indicators.
The nearest support is set by the distant weekly S1 at 1.3880 which might not actually be reached today if the US Core Durable Goods Orders do not provide any negative surprises. Meanwhile, the ultimate high for today should be 1.40.
Hourly chart
The Sterling has been driven by strong downside potential during the previous five trading sessions. As a result, it breached the combined support of the 55-day SMA, the monthly PP and a trend-line circa 1.4020 earlier this week.
The rate is currently approaching the weekly S2, the 100-day SMA and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement near 1.3850. This level is likely to be breached, thus setting the senior channel and the monthly S1 at 1.3740 as the next two-week target.
Daily Chart
The SWFX market sentiment remains bullish today, as 52% of open positions are long (+1%). Meanwhile, 52% of pending orders are to sell the Pound (+1%).
OANDA traders are once again bearish on the Pound in this session with 51% of their open positions being short. Saxo Bank clients have changed their sentiment to bullish with 51% long positions.
Spreads (avg, pip) / Trading volume / Volatility