- SWFX market sentiment is 54% bullish
- 62% of pending orders in 100-pip range are to SELL the Euro
- Strong resistance cluster at 1.2320
- Upcoming fundamentals: Euro zone's Flash Manufacturing PMI and Services PMI, US Existing Home Sales
No strong resistance/support clusters are located nearby, so the Euro might move both directions.
The Greenback strengthened against the Eurozone's single currency, following the US Building Permits data report on Tuesday. The EUR/USD currency pair lost only 3 pips, or 0.03%.
The Census Bureau released the Building Permits data that came out slightly better-than-expected and instead of the forecast of 1.33M, the residential building permits grew by 1.35M in the period of March.
Building Permits rose by 2.5% annually, reaching the 1.354M growth pace, thus signaling how much of a construction is in the process. Moreover, single-family house building has retained close to the utmost levels ever since the recession began.
Calm session
This session is likely to be calm in terms of fundamentals. The Markit is set to publish the Euro zone's Flash Manufacturing PMI and Flash Services PMI for the current month at 0800GMT. Meanwhile, the US National Association of Realtors is to release Existing Home Sales for the month of March at 1400GMT.
EUR/USD shows slight downward potential
Strong downside potential drove EUR/USD considerably lower on Friday. After failing to surpass the 200-hour SMA, the pair fell 76 pips down to 1.2280. This level coincides with the weekly S2.Even though technical indicators are located in the oversold territory, some downwards potential might still occur today. The nearest support is provided by a trend-line and the 38.20% Fibonacci retracement, while the weekly S2 and the senior channel are located at 1.2220. It is, however, unlikely that the latter is reached within the following trading session.
Meanwhile, gains are likely to be limited by the 55-hour SMA near 1.2330. This area is likewise reinforced by the monthly PP and the weekly S1. Even if a fall occurs within the following hours, bulls are expected to prevail during the second part of the day.
Hourly Chart
The Euro remained near the 55-day SMA and the monthly PP last week, thus returning to the senior channel. Its inability to edge higher during the past two weeks continues to point to further downside potential, especially following a strong breakout of the aforementioned moving average on Friday. The nearest support is provided by the 100-day SMA, the monthly S1 and the 50.0% Fibonacci retracement.
Daily Chart
Bearish sentiment allays
The SWFX market sentiment for EUR/USD has turned bullish, compared to market equilibrium on Friday.
The outlook for the two currencies against the rest of the traded financial instruments is as follows: the Euro is 55% bearish and the US Dollar is neutral.
The bearish sentiment of OANDA traders has weakened to 54% (-5%). Saxo Bank clients share the same sentiment with 59% of open positions being short (-3%).
Spreads (avg, pip) / Trading volume / Volatility