- Traders are bearish with 51% short positions (-1%)
- 60% of pending orders in 100-pip range are to SELL the Euro
- Upside potential up to 1.2370
- No important fundamental events today; traders should watch closely US-China trade talks
The pair continues to move along the senior channel; upside is restricted by the 200-hour SMA near 1.2352.
The Greenback strengthened against the European single currency, following the US ISM manufacturing PMI data release on Monday. The EUR/USD currency pair lost only six pips, or 0.05%, to continue going back up to the 1.2327 level.
The Institute for Supply Management revealed the decrease in purchasing managers index of 59.3 in March, compared to 60.8 in the previous period. However, there was a decrease, the data was still positive by being above 50 and caused US dollar to strengthen. The EUR/ USD pair stepped lower just a little bit, which can be explained by the fact that there is still a holiday today and the volume is not as usual, which most probably eliminated more significant fluctuations.
No important releases today
The economic calendar in this session includes only one event of intermediate importance, namely, a speech by the Federal Reserve Governor Lael Brainard who is to discuss financial stability at the Stern School of Business. The time of his speech is at 2030GMT.
EUR/USD faces strong resistance
EUR/USD spent the Monday morning calmly in between the bounds of the 55– and 200-hour SMAs. Following a test of the 100-hour moving average mid-day, the pair fell down to the senior channel circa 1.23 where it remained located this morning.The pair is currently stranded between two strong barriers, namely the senior pattern and the combined resistance of the 55– and 100-hour SMAs and the monthly PP circa 1.2320.
Given that no significant fundamentals are scheduled for today, the pair should lack enough strength to dash through this cluster. However, the US Dollar might still be weakened by US-China trade tensions that could actually put addition upward pressure on the Euro.
Upside potential today is until 1.2365, while a fall should not exceed the 1.2250 mark.
Hourly Chart
EUR/JPY has been trading sideways since early March, as the strong support of the 55-day SMA has not allowed the pair to move below the 1.22 mark.
The Euro might still push slightly higher towards the weekly R1 and the upper boundary of the junior channel this week. However, the general direction should nevertheless remain south to eventually breach the senior channel and test the 100-day SMA and the monthly S1 at 1.2130.
Daily Chart
Sentiment strongly bearish
The bearish market sentiment for the EUR/USD exchange continues to deteriorate, thus currently being 51% bearish (-1%).
The outlook for the two currencies against the rest of the traded financial instruments is as follows: the Euro is 59% bearish and the US Dollar is 52% bullish.
The bearish sentiment of OANDA traders has decreased to 53% open positions today (-3%). Saxo Bank clients share the same sentiment with 59% of open positions being short (+1%).
Spreads (avg, pip) / Trading volume / Volatility