- Pending orders in the 100-pip range stand at equilibrium
- SWFX market sentiment is 52% bearish (-1%)
- Strong resistance near 1.41
- Banks in the United Kingdom and the United States closed due to Easter Holidays
Movement potential is apparent in both directions; however, it is more likely that the Pound tries to test the 1.41 level.
The British Pound strengthened against the Greenback, following the UK current account data release on Thursday. The GBP/USD currency pair gained only three pips, or 0.02%, in the first minute after the release, to continue fluctuating in the 1.4049 area.
The Office for National Statistics revealed the deficit of £18.4B in Britain's current account in the Q4 of 2017. The gap between imports and exports reduced compared to the previous period; however, analysts forecast the gap to increase up to £24.0B. It was a small relief for Britain to realise that it is approaching Brexit without relying too much on foreign investors.
Market quiet due to holidays
Markets are likely to be quiet in this session with low volatility, as banks in Germany and the United States are closed for Good Friday.
GBP/USD returns to 1.40
GBP/USD continued to weaken on Thursday but with considerably lower volatility than during the two preceding sessions.After failing to surpass the strong resistance of the weekly PP, the monthly R1 and the 200-hour SMA near the psychological 1.41 mark, the Sterling breached the prevailing three-week channel and pushed lower until 1.4030 was reached on Friday morning.
The Sterling has enough room to move both directions today, as the nearest barriers are set only at 1.41 and 1.3960. The pair is most likely to remain between these two levels in this session. It is expected that a retracement from the breached channel might follow, thus allowing for a minor recovery of the Pound.
In general, this session should not introduce any changes in price, as US markets are closed due to Easter Holidays.
Hourly chart
The Sterling has been appreciating gradually against the US Dollar since the beginning of March – the movement which has been guided by the 55-day SMA.
This week marked a change is sentiment, as the pair fell from its two-month high of 1.4240 towards the aforementioned 55-day moving average located at 1.40. It is likely that this line guides the pair during the following sessions, especially when being reinforced by the monthly PP, the weekly S1 and the 38.20% Fibonacci retracement. A breakout south could be followed by depreciation in the medium-term down to the 100-day SMA circa 1.38.
Daily Chart
The SWFX market sentiment remains bearish with 52% short positions (-1%). Meanwhile, the number of pending orders is at equilibrium for the second consecutive session.
The number of short positions of OANDA traders has decreased to 51%, compared to 54% on Thursday. Saxo Bank clients share the same sentiment with 52% short positions (-2%).
Spreads (avg, pip) / Trading volume / Volatility