- Traders are bearish with 54% short positions (-3%)
- 60% of pending orders in 100-pip range are to SELL the Euro
- Upside potential up to 1.2350
- Banks in Germany and the US closed due to Easter Holidays
The pair is likely to be squeezed in narrow range; a possible trading range is 1.2350/10.
The Greenback strengthened against the Euro, following the US final gross domestic product data released on Wednesday. The EUR/USD currency pair lost only two pips, or 0.02%, in the first minute after the release, to continue fluctuating in the 1.2385 area.
The Bureau of Economic Analysis revealed higher final GDP in the Q4 2017, however the market remained almost unchanged. The Bureau of Economic Analysis reported a growthof 2.9%, surpassing the expectations and following a 3.2% growth rate recorded in the previous period. One of the main reasons for the US economy to expand more than forcast is the increase in consumer spending.
Market quiet due to holidays
Markets are likely to be quiet in this session with low volatility, as banks in Germany and the United States are closed for Good Friday.
EUR/USD remains near 1.2320
The common European currency remained stable against the Greenback on Thursday. A move above the 1.2340 was restricted by the weekly PP and the nearby-located 200-hour SMA, while strong support was provided by the bottom boundary of a five-month ascending channel.It is likely that the pair tries to move higher today; however, big advances are unlikely to follow in this session, as the 1.2360 area is restricted by the 55– and 200-hour SMAs and the 23.60% Fibonacci retracement. Fundamentals are likewise unlikely to support a breakout above this mark, as markets of major economies, including the US and Germany, are closed for Easter Holidays.
The senior channel is expected to hold, thus squeezing the rate between these two barriers until early Monday.
Hourly Chart
EUR/JPY has been trading sideways since early March, as the strong support of the 55-day SMA has not allowed the pair to move below the 1.22 mark.
The Euro might still push slightly higher towards the weekly R1 and the upper boundary of the junior channel this week. However, the general direction should nevertheless remain south to eventually breach the senior channel and test the 100-day SMA and the monthly S1 at 1.2130.
Daily Chart
Sentiment strongly bearish
The SWFX market sentiment for the EUR/USD exchange rate is 54% bearish.
The outlook for the two currencies against the rest of the traded financial instruments is as follows: the Euro is 61% bearish and the US Dollar is 54% bullish.
The bearish sentiment of OANDA traders has fallen to 54% of short positions today (-3%). Meanwhile, Saxo Bank clients have maintained their bearish sentiment at 59% for the second consecutive session.
Spreads (avg, pip) / Trading volume / Volatility