- 64% of pending orders in the 100-pip range are to BUY
- SWFX market sentiment is 53% bullish (-1%)
- Expected wide trading range in response to FOMC statement
- Upcoming events: UK's Average Earnings Index 3m/y, Claimant Count Change, Public Sector Net Borrowing and Unemployment Rate; US Current Account and Existing Home Sales; FOMC Economic Projections, Statement, Press Conference and Federal Funds Rate
The British Pound weakened against the Greenback, following the releases of the UK Consumer Price Index and Producers Price Index. The GBP/USD currency pair lost 25 base points, or 0.18%, reaching the 1.4029 level, to continue fluctuating in the 1.4032 area.
The Office for National Statistics revealed less-than-expected data regarding both Consumer Price Index and Producers Price Index input. However, the CPI growth in February was 2.7%, following 3% growth in the prior month, the PPI input was recorded at negative 1.1%, after a 0.7% rise in the previous period. The downturn in the GBP/USD currency pair was mainly led by the lack of positive data, following pairs' surge from Brexit agreements as seen on yesterday.
All eyes on Fed
This trading session is packed with fundamentals from both the United Kingdom and the United States. The British Office for National Statistics is to publish the Average Earnings Index and Unemployment Claims for January, as well as the Claimant Count Change and Public Sector Net Borrowing during February at 0930GMT.
The main focus of the day is put on the Fed which is to release its Economic Projections, written statement and the Federal Funds Rate at 1800GMT. The press conference is scheduled 30 minutes later. The Federal Reserve is expected to hike its interest rate by 0.25% to 1.75%.
Meanwhile, there also two US data release of immediate importance during the day, namely, the Current Account and Existing Home Sales at 1230GMT and 1400GMT, accordingly.
GBP/USD moves along 55-hour SMA
The Sterling was generally steady against the US Dollar on Tuesday, as traders were awaiting patiently for the Fed monetary policy statement at 1800GMT. The only volatility during the day was introduced by the British CPI which showed sluggish performance during the previous month.Bears pressured the Pound lower for a few hours until the 55-hour SMA near 1.40 was reached. The pair has been subsequently guided by this line, suggesting that the same situation might continue during the first part of the day when the rate might push for the weekly R2 at 1.4083.
By and large, the Fed is very likely to end this still movement and elicit notable reaction. The 1.3930 mark should restrict bearish momentum due to strong support levels. Conversely, upside potential is up to 1.4150.
Hourly chart
Contrary to expectations, the 55-day SMA has managed to support the GBP/USD exchange rate for the last two weeks. The pair failed to breach this line on several occasions.
It is expected that the rate returns for a re-test of this moving average, the weekly S1 and the 61.80% Fibonacci retracement circa 1.3830 during the first part of this week. The pair could continue trading along this line, thus pointing to a period of appreciation.
Daily Chart
The SWFX market sentiment remains bullish with 53% long positions, compared to 54% in the previous session. Moreover, 62% of pending orders are to buy the Sterling (+5%).
The market sentiment of OANDA has turned bullish with 54% of its clients holding long positions (+1%). Saxo Bank clients have decreased their bearish sentiment today, thus currently standing at 56% short positions (-4%).
Spreads (avg, pip) / Trading volume / Volatility