- SWFX market sentiment is 69% bearish
- 53% of pending orders in 100-pip range are to SELL the Euro
- 70% of total pending commands are to sell the Euro
- Upcoming events: US Preliminary Nonfarm Productivity q/q, US Preliminary Unit Labour Costs q/q, US Unemployment Claims, US ISM Manufacturing PMI, Spanish Unemployment Change
The EUR/USD exchange rate remained above the 1.2400 level, following the Fed's interest rate decision and monetary policy statement. The pair fell 23 pips or 0.18% to the 1.2395 mark, but recovered initially.
The US Federal Reserve announced the decision to keep interest rates at 1.50% on Wednsday, but stated that consumer inflation is likely to accelerate this year, fuelling expectations that borrowing costs would keep climbing under the new Central Bank's Chief Jerome Powell. Citing strong increases in household spending, capital investment and employment, the Fed anticipated the country's economy to expand at a modest pace and the job market to remain solid in 2018. The Bank is expected to hike rates three times more this year.
US Manufacturing PMI
The main fundamental event for today is the US ISM Manufacturing PMI for January to be released at 1500GMT. The United States will also publish its Preliminary Nonfarm Productivity, Preliminary Unit Labour Costs and the weekly Unemployment Claims at 1330GMT.
EUR/USD bears likely to fail
Minor upside risks dominated the market during the first part of Wednesday. The Euro was gradually appreciating against the US Dollar until the daily high was reached at 1.2466. The pair was afterwards pushed lower down to the combined support of the 55– and 100-hour SMAs near 1.2420 where it remained located early this morning.This trading session is market by low volatility. Given that bulls have failed to push the rate higher for several hours, the Euro might want to resume its movement southwards within this session. However, traders should be aware that the aforementioned support area is unlikely to surrender easily.
Meanwhile, even if bulls take this opportunity to push the rate higher today, gains should not exceed the 2015/2017 high of 1.25.
Hourly Chart
The common European currency continues to trade sideways for the sixth consecutive session. It is expected that this period of consolidation is followed by a decline, as technical indicators are located at or near the overbought area.
If the rate manages to appreciate in this session, a possible point of reversal should be the 2015/2017 high of 1.25.
Daily Chart
Market sentiment is strongly bearish
The bearish market sentiment has remained at 69% short positions for the second consecutive session.
In the meantime, the outlook for the two currencies against the rest of the traded financial instruments is as follows: the Euro is 70% bearish and the US Dollar is 63% bullish.
OANDA traders remain bearish, as 60% of open positions are short (+2%). Saxo Bank clients are likewise bearish on the pair with 62% short positions (-1%).
Spreads (avg, pip) / Trading volume / Volatility