- 62% of pending orders in the 100-pip range are to SELL
- 55% of traders are bearish on the Sterling
- Strong support circa 1.3860
- No fundamentals today
The British Pound fluctuated against the US Dollar after the UK retail sales report, falling initially by 4 base points to the 1.3916 mark. The GBP/USD exchange rate briefly touched the 1.3945 level remaining in the bearish trend.
Britain's shop sales depreciated by more than anticipated in December, confirming the weakest yearly growth in retail in four years, as consumer spending remained limited due to Brexit-hit prices. The Office for National Statistics revealed that the volume of retail sales fell 1.5% from November, reversing a 1.0% increase registered in the prior month. Meanwhile, the Bank of England anticipated the squeeze on consumers to ease this year, as inflation calms down and pay growth accelerates.
No fundamentals
No fundamentals that could affect the GBP/USD exchange pair are scheduled for today.
GBP/USD breaches short-term channel
Friday's trading session ended with a 39-pip loss for the GBP/USD exchange rate. Further decline below the 1.3850 mark was limited by the combined support of the 55– and 100-hour SMAs. Even though the Sterling breached the prevailing short-term channel, it remained near the former until early Monday.
Technical indicators suggest that the price could fluctuate without any notable leaps today. However, it is more likely that the Pound tries to regain some of loses which occurred on Friday.
A possible upside target could be the weekly R1 at 1.3959, as the upper boundary of a longer-term ascending channel is likewise located near this mark.
Hourly chart
The upside momentum of GBP/USD is starting to allay, as the rate approaches the upper boundary of an ascending channel valid since early October.
Given that the southern barrier is provided by the monthly R3, the weekly PP and the 61.8% Fibo retracement, the Sterling might be reluctant to breach the 1.3850 mark today.
Daily chart
The SWFX sentiment remains bearish in this session, as 55% of traders are holding short positions (unchanged from Friday). In addition, 59% of pending orders are to sell the Sterling (+5%).
The bearish sentiment of OANDA traders has increased by one percentage point with 58% short positions. Saxo Bank clients share the same sentiment with 67% short positions (-1%).
Spreads (avg, pip) / Trading volume / Volatility