- SWFX market sentiment is 58% bearish
- 59% of pending orders in 100-pip range are set to BUY
- 55% of traders are bullish on the Dollar
- Upcoming Events: US ADP Non-Farm Employment Change and Crude Oil Inventories
Positive sentiment related to the upcoming talks between the US House and Senate pushed the rate to the monthly PP yesterday. As a result, the pair has broken the one-month long ascending channel.
The US Dollar was seen trading slightly higher against the European single currency, as the US economic reports revealed weaker than estimated results on Tuesday. The EUR/USD currency pair fell 6 base points, where the Euro was strong enough to return in the 1.1835 area.
US consumer inflation growth weakened in October, as the hurricane-related increase in purchases of motor vehicles started to fade. The Fed's closely watched inflation measure, the Core PCE Price Index excluding energy and food increased 1.4% year-over-year in October, though the figure undershot the bank's 2% target for more than 5 years. Recent economic data strengthened projections for the Fed to raise borrowing costs once again in December.
Employment data release
At 13:15 GMT the Automatic Data Processing will release an update on the American employment change. Although this event as marked as red in many economic calendars, it is not expected to cause any substantial volatility in the markets.
EUR/USD breaks junior ascending channel
In line with expectations, a combination of the 55-, 100- and 200-hour SMAs pushed the rate downwards, leading to dissolution of the one-month long ascending channel. The plunge happened despite release of worse than expected non-manufacturing data, which means that markets are mainly focused on talks between the House and Senate about tax reform. Most probably these expectations will continue to nourish the buck through the whole week. On hourly chart this scenario nicely matches with a minor descending channel whose existence was additionally confirmed by a rebound from the monthly PP at 1.1806. Accordingly, today the pair is trying to return back to the 1.1866 level. The most likely scenario is that this attempt will be neutralized by one of the above MAs. In this sense, a release of the US employment data is unlikely to change the situation.
Hourly Chart
On daily chart the pair has broken the one month long ascending channel and continued to move downwards. Such outcome indicates that movement of the pair is actually guided by descending channel that started to form back in August.
Daily Chart
Market sentiment is bearish
In result of the previous trading session the bearish market sentiment remained unchanged, as 58% of open positions are short now.
In the meantime, the outlook for the two currencies against the rest of the traded financial instruments is the following: the Euro is 63% bearish and the Dollar is 55% bullish.
Traders of OANDA remain bearish, as 60% (+0%) of open positions are short. Meanwhile, SAXO are bearish on this currency pair with 57% (-1%) of open short positions.
Spreads (avg, pip) / Trading volume / Volatility