- SWFX market sentiment is 57% bearish
- 54% of pending orders in 100-pip range are set to BUY
- 58% of traders remain bullish on the Dollar
- Upcoming Events: Mario Draghi speech, European Flash Manufacturing and Services PMIs
In line with expectations, the currency pair made a fully-fledged rebound from the bottom trend-line of a dominant ascending channel yesterday. After crossing multiple moving averages together with the weekly PP the exchange rate is likely to continue the surge at least until the 1.2010 mark, which represents not only a pre-fall level but also location of a supposed upper edge of junior channel down.
The EUR/USD fluctuated between the 1.1898 and 1.1917 marks to decrease slightly, following the US Jobless Claims report. The fall was easily offset by the bullish market reaction on the Mr. Draghi speech, where the Euro added 17 base points or 0.14% and continued gradual increase to the intraday high of 1.1947.
The US Labour Department stated that the number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits dropped unexpectedly to 259K last week, suggesting that the hurricanes-related increase continued to reverse.
The next move in the pair was set by the ECB President Mario Draghi comments on the banking sector risks, while avoiding to provide any hints on the Bank's monetary policy changes decision.
Draghi speaks once again
For the present day the economic calendar does not contain any important events related to the American Dollar. In contrast, on the European continent traders will get an opportunity to take a look at the latest update on the Euro Zone's Flash Manufacturing and Services PMIs that will be announced at 8:00 GMT.
Separately they are not expected to cause any significant volatility in the markets. But taken together with another speech that will be delivered by the ECB President Draghi at Trinity College in Dublin, there might appear some effect that is likely to give an additional positive impulse to the recovering Euro.
EUR/USD rebounds from bottom line of dominant channel
In accordance with expectations, the currency exchange rate made a rebound from a combined support set up by the monthly PP at 1.1881 together with the bottom trend-line of a dominant ascending channel. The better that expected US data release together with the remarks made by Mario Draghi in Frankfurt only supported the yesterday's surge.
Today the pair is expected to continue to climb to the top. First, it has no barriers on its way except for the supposed upper edge of a junior descending channel. Second, it experiences pressure from a number of moving averages as well as the weekly PP, which from resistance turned into support. Third, at 8:00 GMT the ECB President is going to speak at Trinity College, which is likely to give additional stimulus to the Euro.
Hourly Chart
At the moment, the pair is fluctuating in dominant ascending channel and supposed junior descending channel. Today the pair has an excellent chance to an upper boundary of the latter pattern, thus confirming or refuting its existence.
Daily Chart
Traders remain bearish on the pair
The bearish market sentiment continues to dominate the market, as 57% of open positions are short. In the meantime, the outlook for the two currencies against the rest of the traded financial instruments is as follows. Euro is 62% bearish, while for the Dollar 58% bullish.
Traders of OANDA remain bearish, as 65% of open positions are short. Meanwhile, SAXO are also bearish on this currency pair with 64% of open short positions.
Spreads (avg, pip) / Trading volume / Volatility