- SWFX traders are 56% bearish
- 54% of pending orders in 1000-pip range are set to SELL the gold
- Signifficant support near 1,300.00
- Upcoming Events: US Building Permits, Current Account, Housing Starts, Import Prices
On Monday, the gold expectedly continued to depreciate against the buck. From a larger perspective, the pair is expected to continue the downfall. However, in the short run the rate is likely to make a rebound near 1,300.00, as it represents not only location of the monthly PP, but also important psychological level.
The Commerce Department reported that the US retail sales dropped unexpectedly 0.2% over the month of August, missing expectations for a 0.3% increase. The negative changes were mainly due to depressed purchases of motor vehicles likely after Hurricane Harvey, which could cause a further moderation in consumer spending in the Q3. However, a rise in purchases at restaurants and furniture outlets suggested the demand is set to be supported by a healthy labour market.
Quiet day
Today will be marked by release of a set of the US housing data at 12:30 GMT. From fundamental point of view, they represent a valuable insight about the effectiveness of the Donald Trump's presidency. But from technical point of view, such type of data usually does not cause much volatility in the markets. In this sense, it is better to wait an announcement of the US Federal Funds Rate that will happen tomorrow at 18:00 GMT.
XAU/USD prepares to test 1,300.00
In line with expectations, the yellow metal continued to lose value against the buck yesterday, in the process crossing the weekly S1 at 1,310.77. From a daily perspective, the downfall should continue today as well. But in order to do that, the exchange rate has to break through a combined support set up by the weekly S2 at 1,301.03 and the monthly PP at 1,300.04. The fact that this barrier is located at the psychological level and also coincides with the bottom edge of a descending channel suggests that a rebound might happen at least in the short run. However, even in the case of a rebound recovery of the gold is unlikely to last for long due to pressure from the slipping 55- and 100-hour SMAs.
Hourly Chart
After making a rebound from the upper edge of a dominant long-term channel, the gold was gradually losing value against the buck. On a daily chart it seems that the pair has formed a junior channel down. Consequently, a preliminary target for the rate remains the monthly PP at 1,300.00.Daily Chart
Markets sentiment remains bearish
Traders of Dukascopy remain bearish on the price of gold, as 56% of open positions are short. In the meantime, 56% of pending commands are to buy the commodity.
OANDA Gold traders remain neutral, as open positions are 53% bullish. In the meantime, SAXO bank traders are neutrally bullish, as 53% of open positions are also long.