- SWFX traders are 55% bearish
- 61% of pending orders in 800-pip range are set to BUY
- Downfall stopped by 100-hour SMA near 1,332.80
- Upcoming Events: US Unemployment Claims, Crude Oil Inventories and FOMC Member Dudley Speech
A release of data on the US ISM Non-manufacturing did let the pair to use an upside momentum provided by the 55-hour SMA to try to reach the monthly R1 near 1,348.36 However, today the bullion is expected to resume this attempt, relying on support provided by a combination of the 55- and 100-hour SMAs.
The Commerce Department stated that orders for US-made goods tumbled 3.3% in July, as the demand for transportation equipment slumped in the same period. However, capital goods orders were stronger than the prior report showed, suggesting a solid business spending in the early Q3. Moreover, an increase in production could be fuelled by expected rise in demand for motor vehicles, as residents in storm-battered Texas aim to replace damaged cars.
Traditional weekly Data
Today the United States will not release any notable macroeconomic data except for the weekly updates on change in unemployment claims and crude oil stockpiles. Instead, traders are advised to take a look today at the Euro, which is expected to be substantially shaken by announcement of the EU Minimum Bid Rate.
XAU/USD moves along 100-hour SMA
Instead of trying to reach the monthly R1 at 1,348.36, using the 55-hour SMA as a springboard, the exchange rate stuck at the weekly R1 at 1,339.42 and stayed there until a release of data on the US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI. The American figures appeared to be positive and dragged the pair down by 0.5%.
Fortunately for the gold, the 100-hour SMA managed to neutralize the further fall. For this reason, the yellow metal has a good basis to try to get back at least to the above weekly R1. On the other hand, there is a need to take into account that below the 100-hour SMA there is an empty zone up until the junior ascending channel's bottom trend-line and the 200-hour SMA.
Hourly Chart
The exchange rate seems to have stuck near the 1,337.00 level. From an long-term ascending channel perspective as well as the uneasy geopolitical situation, the gold is expected to continue to grow. On the other hand, if by the end of this week it will not manage to climb higher, there might be a need to reconsider boundaries of the channel.
Daily Chart
Markets sentiment remains bearish
Traders of Dukascopy remain bearish on the price of gold, as 55% of open positions are short. Accordingly, the same percentage of pending commands is to buy the commodity. Moreover, 43% of pending orders are set to sell the buck.
OANDA Gold traders remain neutral, as open positions are 50% bullish. In the meantime, SAXO bank traders are neutrally bearish, as 55% of open positions are short.