- SWFX market sentiment is 58% bearish
- 59% of pending orders in 100-pip range are set to BUY
- 57.90% of traders are bullish on the Dollar
- Upcoming Events: FOMC Member Brainard, Kashkari and Kaplan Speak, US Factory Orders m/m
Unfortunately for the Euro, the currency pair continues to fluctuate near the bottom edge of a senior ascending channel. Most probably, today the buck will make another attempt to break to the bottom. And as yesterday and two days ago it is expected to be stopped by the above support barrier.
The combination of US economic reports showing slightly weaker results caused a solid jump in EUR/USD. The Euro strengthened against the Greenback by 56 base points to reach the peak nearing the 1.1972 mark, albeit stronger bearish sentiment restored a downmove in the pair. The Labour Department revealed that the US marked an increase of 156K new jobs over the course of August, which was below expectations, but strong enough to keep the country's economy growing at a steady pace. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate rose to 4.4% from 4.3% in the same period. Despite moderation in the labour market, data showed nothing that could undermine the Fed's intention to start trimming its balance sheet.
FOMC Members' speeches
Today is not marked by any significant American macroeconomic data releases. On the other hand, traders could take a look at the comments that will be made by the Fed's Governors Brainard, Kashkari and Kaplan through the day. Yet none of them are expected to cause any notable volatility in the markets.
EUR/USD moves around 1.1898
Most of the previous trading day the currency pair spent in a horizontal movement, being squeezed between the weekly PP at 1.1918 and the monthly PP at 1.1881. At the same time, it is fluctuating in a symmetrical triangle pattern, which is about to be broken. The southern side remains protected by the bottom trend-line of a dominant ascending channel. In contrast, the northern direction is secured only by the weekly R1, which is located more than 100 basis points from the current position of the rate. For this reason, an upcoming rebound still remains seems to be a more preferable scenario.
Hourly Chart
From a daily perspective the currency pair relentlessly tries to break to the bottom edge of a dominant channel. Despite that yesterday the exchange rate ended up in a red zone, the further downfall is still doubtful due to additional presence of the monthly PP at 1.1881.
Daily Chart
Traders still bearish on the pair
The SWFX market sentiment has slightly increased since yesterday and now is 58% bearish. In the meantime, the outlook for the Euro is 61% bearish, while for the Dollar 58% bullish.
Traders of OANDA remain bearish, as 63% of open positions are short. Meanwhile, SAXO are also bearish on this currency pair with 61% of open short positions.
Spreads (avg, pip) / Trading volume / Volatility