- SWFX market sentiment is 58% bearish
- Trader pending orders 56% bullish
- Pair opened Tuesday's session at 1.1477
- Upcoming Events: US Import Prices
As it was expected and forecasted on the short term and long term charts, the EUR/USD is fluctuating above the 1.15 mark. However, it is almost clear that additional gains in the future are doubtful, as there are various resistance levels, which the pair is facing. Moreover, the fundamentals from both sides are changing.
Consumer inflation in the Euro zone rose in line with analysts' forecasts last month, official figures revealed on Monday. Eurostat reported that its Final Consumer Price Index came in at 1.3% in June, matching the flash estimate and falling down from 1.4% registered in preceding month. Meanwhile, the so-called core inflation rate rose 1.1% on an annual basis, following May's 0.9% increase.
US Import Prices
There is only one data release scheduled for Tuesday, which might influence the financial markets form the side of the US Dollar. The US Import Prices information will be released at 12:30 GMT. However, as this data release has not historically caused notable volatility, it will not be covered by the Dukascopy research team.
EUR/USD surges as expected
The forecasted jump of the common European currency against the US Dollar has occurred. Finally, after long expectations, the EUR/USD pair has reached above the 1.15 mark. On Tuesday morning the pair traded above the weekly R1, which is located at the 1.1516 mark. Meanwhile, the pair faced the first monthly resistance at the 1.1542 mark. By looking at the hourly chart, it could be assumed that the surge is set to continue. However, one should look at clues regarding the future on larger timeframe charts. As it has to be noted that the currency exchange rate is approaching long term resistance trend lines, which might stop the surge near the 1.1550 mark. On the other hand the markets might react soon to the changes in the monetary policy both in the EU and the US.
Hourly Chart
The daily chart reveals that the first notable long term resistance line has been broken, and the currency pair is surging up to the long term descending channel. If that resistance level is clearly broken, the Euro might begin a new surge and force a full review of the technical charts.
Daily Chart
Bearish sentiment persists
The situation in the SWFX markets remains unchanged, as traders remain bearish with 58% of open positions being short, and 56% of trader set up orders are to buy the Euro.
Traders of OANDA are bearish, as 69.25% of open positions are short. Meanwhile, SAXO bank clients also remain at the bearish front, as 63.44% of their trader open EUR/USD positions are short.
Spreads (avg, pip) / Trading volume / Volatility
Average forecast shows EUR/USD will trade below 1.14 in October
Traders, who were questioned on their longer-term views on EUR/USD between June 18 and July 18, expect, on average, that the currency exchange rate may trade near 1.14 during the third week of October. In general, 47% of participants believe the exchange rate will be above 1.14 in the following ninety days. Meanwhile, 30% of respondents expect to see the rate below 1.12.