- SWFX market sentiment is 59% bearish
- Trader pending orders 54% bullish
- Pair opened Tuesday's session at 1.1400
- Upcoming Events: US JOLTS Job Openings
The EUR/USD pair has not left the previous range. However, a new short term pattern reveals important information. Clues indicate that the currency pair is preparing for a sharp breakout. Moreover, the breakout is most likely going to occur to the downside.
New orders for US-made goods declined more than estimated for the second consecutive month in May, a worrisome sign for the manufacturing industry. The US Commerce Department reported on Wednesday that the country's factory orders dropped 0.8% month-over-month in May, following a downwardly revised 0.3% fall registered in April. Meanwhile, analysts anticipated new orders to show a smaller decline of 0.5%. On a yearly basis, factory orders were up 4.8%, suggesting that US manufacturing activity continued to expand at a moderate pace.
JOLTS Job Openings in focus
After a fully empty Monday one data release is worth mentioning on Tuesday. It will be the JOLTS Job Openings data at 14:00 GMT. However, a notable impact on the financial markets is most unlikely. Moreover, the data set is going to be ignored due to another reason. On Wednesday Janet Yellen is set to testify, which means that the markets will go quiet until then.
EUR/USD reveals triangle pattern
As it was expected, the EUR/USD currency pair has continued to trade near the 1.14 mark. However, recent fluctuations have revealed additional information, which is enforcing the previous forecasts. In general, the hypothesis of a decline of the Euro against the US Dollar is being strengthened by the fact that a new pattern was spotted. The new pattern is a short term descending triangle. The triangle shows that the currency exchange rate is building up downwards pressure, as the support levels from 1.1390 to 1.1380 are holding ground. Most likely the currency pair will fall by the end of the day and reach for the combined support of the weekly S1 and the monthly pivot point at the 1.1331 level.
Hourly Chart
On the daily timeframe only one worth mentioning fact can be observed. The upper Bollinger band of the daily chart, which quite often plays a critical role in the pair's movements, has continued to move higher, as it has reached above the 1.15 mark. Due to that reason the band is now strengthening the second weekly resistance, which is located at the 1.1513 mark.
Daily Chart
Bearish sentiment persists
The situation in the SWFX markets remains almost unchanged, as traders remain bearish with 59% of open positions being short. Meanwhile, 54% of trader set up orders are to buy the Euro.
Traders of OANDA are bearish, as 66.61% of open positions are short. Meanwhile, SAXO bank clients also remain at the bearish front, as 68.01% of their trader open EUR/USD positions are short.
Spreads (avg, pip) / Trading volume / Volatility
Average forecast shows EUR/USD will trade above 1.13 in October
Traders, who were questioned on their longer-term views on EUR/USD between June 11 and July 11, expect, on average, that the currency exchange rate may trade above 1.13 during the second week of October. In general, 68% (+2%) of participants believe the exchange rate will be above 1.12 in the following ninety days. Meanwhile, 26% (-1%) of respondents expect to see the rate below 1.10.