- SWFX market sentiment is 62% bearish
- Trader pending orders 62% bearish
- Pair opened Monday's session at 1.1422
- Upcoming Events: ISM Manufacturing PMI
The EUR/USD currency pair has failed to pass the resistance of the 1.1450 mark. As a result of that, a decline has begun. Various clues indicate that the pair will find support soon, as various clues indicate that the surge should continue.
Pending home sales in the United States dropped for the third consecutive month in May, official figures revealed on Wednesday. The National Association of Realtors reported that pending home sales fell 0.8% last month, following April's downwardly revised drop of 1.7% and falling behind market analysts' expectations for an increase of 0.9%. According to Wednesday's data, supply shortages mainly drove the fall. The supply of homes available for sale dropped more than 8% year-over-year in May.
ISM Manufacturing PMI
This Monday there will be only one worth mentioning data release, as the US ISM Manufacturing PMI will influence the short term strength of the US Dollar. The data release is set to occur at 14:00 GMT.
EUR/USD remains above 1.14 mark
As the 1.1450 mark held its ground against the surge of the Euro against the US Dollar on Friday, the pair traded lower on Monday morning. The currency pair had declined and even passed the support of the 55-hour SMA, which held up the EUR/USD pair throughout Friday's trading, As a result of the mentioned move, the closest support to the currency exchange rate on Monday morning was the 23.60% Fibonacci retracement level at the 1.1388 mark. Meanwhile, the 100-hour SMA was approaching from the downside, as it was located near the 1.1375 level during the morning hours of the day's trading. It is most likely that the simple moving average will force the pair into a surge, as the combined support of the retracement level and SMA should provide a strong enough support for a rebound to occur.
Hourly Chart
By looking at the daily chart, it can be observed that the currency exchange rate had overextended its gains. The upper Bollinger band was bent to the upside more than three consecutive trading sessions. The recent decline of the pair is likely a consolidation of gains.
Daily Chart
Bearish sentiment persists
SWFX traders remain bearish, as 62% of open positions are short. Meanwhile, 52% of trader set up orders are to buy the Euro.
Traders of OANDA have decreased their bearish position proportion, as 72.81% of open positions are short on Monday, compared to 73.72% previously. In addition, SAXO bank clients are also bearish, as 69.09% of open positions are short, compared to 69.72% on Friday.
Spreads (avg, pip) / Trading volume / Volatility
Average forecast shows EUR/USD will trade above 1.12 by October
Traders, who were questioned on their longer-term views on EUR/USD between June 3 and July 3, expect, on average, that the currency exchange rate may trade above 1.12 during the first week of October. In general, 66% (+4%) of participants believe the exchange rate will be above 1.12 in the following ninety days. Meanwhile, 30% (-2%) of respondents expect to see the rate below 1.10.