- SWFX market sentiment is 61% bearish
- Trader pending orders 53% bullish
- Pair opened Thursday's session at 1.1169
- Upcoming Events: US Unemployment Claims
The common European currency managed to find support against the US Dollar, in the support cluster, which has been described before. Due to that reason on Thursday morning the currency exchange rate traded above the 1.1150 mark. However, most clues indicate that the decline of the Euro against the Buck is still set to continue.
US oil inventories fell for the second consecutive time last week, official data showed on Wednesday. As reported by the Energy Information Administration, the number of barrels of crude oil dropped 2.5M in the week ended June 16, compared to the preceding week's decline of 1.7M barrels, while analysts predicted a much lower drop of 1.2M barrels. US crude oil production climbed to 9.35M barrels per day, 20K higher than in the prior week, the EIA reported.
US Unemployment Claims
As it is accustomed on a Thursday, the US weekly Unemployment Claims data is set to be released. The data set is capable of causing a medium impact on the strength of the US Dollar in the short term. However, in the recent months the response of the markets to the divergences from the average market forecast have been minor. The data will be released at 12:30 GMT, and it will be a part of the coverage of the Canadian Retail Sales data sets on the Dukascopy live webinar.
EUR/USD breaks short term pattern
Although the recent surge of the EUR/USD currency exchange pair was mainly caused by the depreciation of the US Dollar, the push was strong enough to pass the resistance of a channel down pattern. The pattern dictated the pair's movements throughout June, and it was expected that it will continue to do so until the end of the month. However, after seven hours of continues assault, the upper trend line of the descending channel was broken. On Thursday morning the currency pair traded between the 100 and 200-hour SMAs, respectively, at 1.1162 and 1.1182. It is most likely that the rate will resume its decline, as it is expected in the medium term. However, market participants should watch out for short term surges.
Hourly Chart
The situation has not changed on the daily chart, as the lower Bollinger band remains in the middle of the support cluster near the 1.1120 mark. However, the signs of a different kind of descending pattern are showing themselves. Although, the situation is not clear enough to pinpoint the exact borders of the pattern.
Daily Chart
Bearish sentiment persists
SWFX traders are 61% short in regards to the pair on Thursday. Meanwhile, 53% of trader set up orders are to buy the Euro.
Traders of OANDA are still bearish, as 69.33 of open positions are short on Thursday, compared to 68.76% previously. In addition, SAXO bank clients also remain bearish, as 62.76% of open positions are short, compared to 61.05% on Wednesday.
Spreads (avg, pip) / Trading volume / Volatility
Average forecast shows EUR/USD will trade at 1.12 in September
Traders, who were questioned on their longer-term views on EUR/USD between May 22 and June 22, expect, on average, that the currency exchange rate may trade at 1.12 during the third week of September. In general, 53% (-4%) of participants believe the exchange rate will be above 1.12 in the following ninety days. Meanwhile, 40% (+4%) of respondents expect to see the rate below 1.10.