Volatility may be slowing down, however any significant fundamental news might increase overall risk re-pricing.
XAU/USD short-term forecast
Gold is trading around 4,532.71 and recovering from a recent drop, forming a rounded bottom pattern with higher lows, which suggests momentum is gradually turning upward. The market is currently moving sideways between approximately 4,380.00 support and 4,600.00 resistance, so there is no strong trend yet.
On the downside, if the price fails to stay above 4,500.00 and drops below 4,380.00, it would weaken the recovery and suggest a move back toward 4,235.00 or even 4,150.00. The RSI is around 56.49, which supports a mild bullish bias without being overbought, meaning there is still room for price to rise.
XAU/USD daily charts review
The trend is bearish, with price making lower highs and lower lows inside a downward channel. The current price is around 4532, sitting near the middle of that channel.Key levels to watch are 4750 as resistance, which needs to be broken for any bullish shift, and 4400 as immediate support, followed by 4235 as a stronger floor. Momentum is slightly bearish, with RSI around 41, but it's not oversold and is moving sideways, suggesting the market is slowing down.If the price stays below the channel, it will likely move down toward 4400. If it breaks above the channel, it could rise toward 4750. Overall, the market is consolidating, so it's better to wait for a clear breakout.
Daily Candle Chart
Traders going long
For XAU/USD, about 72.55% of traders are positioned long while 27.45% are short, indicating a strong bullish retail bias.