On Tuesday, the combination of the US CB Consumer Confidence index and the JOLTS Job Openings might create a move of the USD that would impact the financial markets.
On Wednesday, market participants are set to ignore the ADP Non-farm Employment release and other releases due to the top event of them all being scheduled for 18:00 GMT.
The US Federal Reserve is set to announced the Federal Funds Rate and release the Federal Open Market Committee Statement. In general, the Fed is announcing its policy and the reasons for it.
The markets expect the Fed to keep its base interest rate unchanged at 5.50%. In theory, the USD should not move during this event. However, all eyes will be on the statement, as the markets will be looking for clues about potential policy changes in September.
Currently the markets expect the Fed to cut rates in September. The statement might reveal that there will be no rate cut or that the Fed is 100% set to do it.
Moreover, additional information is set to be given by the Chairman of the Federal Reserve Jerome Powell at the follow up Press Conference at 18:30 GMT. In some cases, comments made by the head of the Fed during the press question session reverse the initial market reaction to the statement.
In general, expect high volatility.
On Friday, the US monthly employment data sets are bound to move the markets. At 12:30 GMT, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics will publish the Average Hourly Earnings, Non-Farm Employment and the Unemployment Rate. Better than expected data is set to strengthen the USD. Below forecast numbers are likely to cause a decline of the USD.
XAU/USD short-term forecast
A bounce off from the range could result in the rate looking for support in the 2,350.00 and 2,340.00 levels. However, the 2,370.00 level has been acting as support and could continue to hold the price up.
In the case of a surge above 2,400.00, the metal could encounter resistance in the 2,420.00 level and the 200-hour simple moving average.
XAU/USD daily charts review
Prior analysis: "The price has retreated to the support and resistance range at 2,390.00/2,430.00.A move below the support range could result in a decline to the 2,350.00 level, which is strengthened by the 50 and 100-day simple moving averages.
On the other hand a bounce off from the zone would confirm that it is still capable of keeping the metal's price up and new all-time-highs are possible."
The metal has found support in 2,350.00 and the two moving averages. However, the prior support is now acting as resistance.
Daily Candle Chart
Traders remain short
On Wednesday, positions were 74% short and orders were just 54% to buy.
By mid-Friday, a portion of bearish positions was closed, as 66% of volume was short. Meanwhile, pending orders were 100% to sell.
On Monday, situation was mostly unchanged. 66% of volume was in short positions. The pending orders were 71% to sell the metal.