On Monday, the rate started the week with a surge, as it opened with a gap up and continued with a surge. By the middle of the day's European trading hours, the currency exchange rate was testing the resistance zone of 1.2160/1.2178.
Economic Calendar Analysis
The week in itself is an anomaly, as there are more than twenty notable data sets to watch. In addition, most of them are expected to cause market moves.
A big part of the mass is taken up by the Markit Services and Manufacturing PMIs. On Wednesday, the Purchasing Managers Indices will be released for European countries. Namely, French, German and Eurozone PMIs will be out. In total there will be six data sets.
The French data will be out at 08:15 GMT, and could cause a move from 9.7 to. 30.5. German data, which will be out at 08:30 GMT, has caused EUR/USD moves from 10.4 to 17.5 pips. Afterwards, the Eurozone PMIs at 09:00 might create a move from 7.4 to 13.0 pips.
On the same day, US PMIs and other data from the country will be published. Namely, US Retail Sales at 13:30 GMT and the US Services and Manufacturing PMIs at 14:45 GMT. The Retail Sales have caused moves from 6.0 to 19.7 pips, and the PMIs have made 7.8 to 26.4 pips.
Moreover, at 19:00 GMT the top event of the macro events is occurring. The US Federal Reserve is releasing their FOMC Economic Projections and Statement together with the Federal Funds Rate. Since April the Fed Funds Rate has caused moves from 10.8 to 68.1 pips. However, when the projections are published, the moves are higher, as the EUR/USD moved 36.2 and 68.1 pips in June and September.
On Thursday, the weekly US Unemployment Claims could cause a bounce of around 10 pips on the EUR/USD charts.
Click on the link below to find out more about the data releases of this and other currency exchange rates.
EUR/USD hourly chart's review
Near term future forecasts were based upon what would happen at the resistance zone. Namely, would it hold or fail.In the case of the resistance zone failing, the currency exchange rate would aim at the resistance of the weekly R2 simple pivot point, which was located at the 1.2222 level.
On the other hand, if the resistance holds, the rate should decline once again to the support of the 55, 100 and 200-hour simple moving averages and the weekly simple pivot point. On Monday, these levels were located from 1.2130 to 1.2114.
Hourly Chart
On the daily candle chart, the pair has revealed a channel up pattern. Namely, Dukascopy Analytics spotted it on Friday, but it was revealed already on December 3. This pattern captures the rates surge that has been going on since the start of November.
In the meantime, note that the 2018 high level of 1.2528 is marked on the chart, as a 0.00% Fibo. It is connected with the 2017 low level.
Daily chart
Read More: Technical Analysis
Traders set up sell orders
Since the previous Monday, on the Swiss Foreign Exchange trader open positions were bearish, as 62% of open position volume was in short positions.
This week, on Monday, the sentiment was 63% bearish, as not much had changed.
Meanwhile, trader set up pending orders in the 100-pip range around the pair were 56% to sell the pair.
On Friday, 52% of orders were to buy.