On Monday, the rate was approaching the support of the weekly pivot point and the 100-hour simple moving average near 1.1260.
Economic Calendar Analysis
During the week, the action on the economic calendars will start and most likely end on Wednesday. At 18:00 GMT the US Federal Reserve is scheduled to make a rate announcement and FOMC Statement.
Prior to that, a minor reaction could be caused by the US CPI at 12:30 GMT.
In addition, economic calendars show the US PPI and Unemployment Claims on Thursday. The last PPI release caused a 4 EUR/USD pip move, which is below normal volatility.
EUR/USD hourly chart's review
The short term forecast scenarios were based upon what would happen at the 1.1260 level.In the case of the rate passing the support of the weekly simple pivot point and the 100-hour simple moving average at 1.1259, the pair would immediately test the monthly pivot point's support at 1.1246. If this pivot fails, the rate would have no technical support as low as 1.1200.
On the other hand, if the described support levels hold and the pair rebounds, it would first test the 1.1300 mark, which is strengthened by the 55-hour SMA. If they fail to keep the pair down, the 1.1385 could be tested again.
Hourly Chart
On the daily candle chart, the rate has left far below it the daily simple moving averages, which indicate that the pair is overbought.
Daily chart
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Traders stick to short positions
On Monday, on the Swiss Foreign Exchange 73% of all EUR/USD open position volume was in short positions.
On Friday, the sentiment had become 75% short. Traders were short during the ongoing surge.
Meanwhile, trader set up pending orders in the 100-pip range around the pair were neutral, as 51% were set to buy.