GBP/USD remains unchanged

Note: This section contains information in English only.
Source: Dukascopy Bank SA

The resistance of the weekly R1 of the simple pivot points at 1.2970 has continued to keep the GBP/USD rate down.

In general, the rate was expected to remain unchanged until the 55-hour SMA and the lower trend line of an ascending channel pattern are reached.

FOMC Statement and Federal Funds Rate

The Federal Reserve released the US Federal Funds Rate data, which came out in line with the expectations of 1.75%.

According to the official release: "Consistent with its statutory mandate, the Committee seeks to foster maximum employment and price stability. In light of the implications of global developments for the economic outlook as well as muted inflation pressures, the Committee decided to lower the target range for the federal funds rate to 1-1/2 to 1-3/4 percent."



Economic Calendar

On Friday, November 1, the US Employment data set will be on focus - the Average Hourly Earnings, the Non-Farm Employment Change and the Unemployment Rate data will be published at 12:30 GMT.

This event has caused moves from 21.7 to 51.3 pips since June 2019.

Also on Friday, the ISM Manufacturing PMI survey results will be published at 14:00 GMT. The PMI release has caused reactions from 13.2 to 28.9 base points since June of this year.

Meanwhile, take into account that the next week's reaction tables have been published. Take a look at the 04.11-08.11 Event Historical Reactions publication.

GBP/USD short-term review

Yesterday, the GBP/USD exchange rate tried to surpass the resistance level formed by the weekly R1 at 1.2970. During Friday morning, the rate continued to test the given resistance.

It is likely that some upside potential could prevail in the market, as the currency pair has been trading within the short-term ascending channel since Tuesday. In this case the pair could surpass the psychological level at 1.3000.

However, if the given resistance level holds, it is likely that a reversal south could occur. Note that the currency pair could gain support of the 55-, 100– and 200-hour SMAs, as well the Fibo 38.20% and the weekly PP in the 1.2880/1.2918 area.

Hourly Chart



On the daily candle chart, the rate remains in the borders of a large scale ascending channel pattern. It is surging in its borders.

Meanwhile, the daily simple moving averages have been left far below the exchange rate. It is a signal that the GBP/USD is overbought. However, with the Brexit in the background, long term overbought and oversold indicators should better be ignored.

Daily chart


Short sentiment slightly decreases

On Thursday, 68% of open GBP/USD position volume on the Swiss Foreign Exchange was in short positions.

By the middle of Friday's London trading, the sentiment decreased to 66%.

Meanwhile, trader orders were mostly bearish. In the 100-pip range, 82% of orders were to sell and 18% were to buy.

Previously, the orders were 87% to sell.

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