GBP/USD likely to decline

Note: This section contains information in English only.
Source: Dukascopy Bank SA
During Wednesday's morning, the GBP/USD exchange rate declined to the psychological level at 1.2560.

It is likely, that the rate could maintain its decline. In this case, the rate could seek support at 1.2545 by the monthly S1.

Latest Fundamental Event Report

The British Pound traded sideways against the US Dollar, following the UK Current Account data release on Friday at 08:30 GMT. The GBP/USD exchange currency rate gained 7 pips or 0.06% right after the release. The British Pound continued trading at the 1.2685 level against the Greenback.

Office for National Statistics released the UK Current Account data, which came out better-than-expected of negative 30.0B compared with forecasted negative 32.0B.

According to the official release: "The UK financed its current account deficit mainly through other investment, where UK investors withdrew overseas deposits while overseas investors increased their deposits with UK monetary financial institutions."


US employment data set in focus this week



For this pair the week will end with the US Employment data sets – the Average Earnings, Unemployment Rate and Non-Farm Employment Change.

On the GBP/USD charts this event has caused moves in a range from 14.8 to 27.7 pips since February.

GBP/USD short-term review

Yesterday, the GBP/USD exchange rate tried to breach the short-term descending channel south. During today's morning, the rate declined to the 1.2560 mark.

It is expected, that some downside potential could continue to prevail in the market in the short term. In this case, the currency pair could decline to the support level formed by the monthly S1 at the 1.2545 mark.

On the other hand, the pair could trade sideways around the weekly S2 located at the 1.2594 mark.

It is unlikely, that the British Pound could exceed the 1.2660 level against the US Dollar, as the rate is pressured by the 55– and 100-hour SMAs, as well the weekly S1 and the monthly PP.

Hourly Chart



On the daily candle chart one can observe that the rate remains in the borders of a descending channel pattern. Namely, the pair is targeting the lower channel line.

Note, that the rate is pressured by the 55-day moving average at 1.2793, thus, it is unlikely, that some upside potential could prevail in the short term.

Daily chart


Traders remain long


Since Friday, 64% of open position volume on the Swiss Foreign Exchange was in long positions.

On Tuesday, as 75% of open position volume was in long positions.

Meanwhile, trader set up pending orders in the 100-pip range were bearish, as 61% of orders were set to sell.

In general, traders were long on the pair, but had close by take profits and stop losses.

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