GBP/USD is set to fall

Note: This section contains information in English only.
Source: Dukascopy Bank SA

The previously described technical support levels did not held ground, as it was expected.

The GBP/USD has no technical support level as low as the weekly S1 at the 1.2609 level.

Latest Fundamental Event

The British Pound traded sideways against the US Dollar, following the UK Retail Sales data release on Friday at 08:30 GMT. The GBP/USD exchange currency rate lost 5 pips or 0.04% right after the release. The British Pound continued trading at the 1.2690 level against the Greenback.

Office for National Statistics released the UK Retail Sales data, which came out better-than-expected of 0.00% compared with forecast –0.1%.

According to the official release: "In the three months to April 2019, the quantity of goods bought (volume) in retail sales increased by 1.8% when compared with the previous three months, with strong growth in non-store retailing, which reached a record high of 9.4%."


No GBP/USD affecting data this week

This week there are three notable events on the economic calendar that traders will watch.

On Wednesday, the markets will watch the Bank of Canada Rate Statement at 14:00 GMT. This event has caused since October 2018 moves from 67 to 93 base points on the USD/CAD.

It is currently the top creator of sudden volatility in the markets.

On Thursday, at 12:30 GMT the US Preliminary GDP will be published. This event, which is considered and shown on the calendars as a top mover, has not caused notable moves.

Since November 2017 this event has caused on the EUR/USD moves from 6.8 to 11.9 pips during the five minutes after the release. Note that a move below ten pips on the EUR/USD during five minutes happen often without any data being published.

The week will end with the Canadian GDP publication at 12:30 GMT. This event has caused moves from 21 to 64 pips since December.

GBP/USD short-term review

Yesterday, the GBP/USD exchange rate plummeted to the psychological level at the 1.2800 mark.

Given that the rate is pressured by the 55– and 100-hour moving averages, currently located circa 1.2685, it is likely, that bears could continue to prevail in the market. A possible downside target is the 1.2640 level.

On the other hand, the currency pair could trade sideways in the nearest future, trying to surpass the given resistance.

Also, it is unlikely, that the rate could breach the short-term descending channel south due to the resistance cluster formed by the 200-hour SMA, the weekly PP and the monthly S2 in the 1.2703/1.2715 range.

Hourly Chart


On the daily candle chart, the GBP/USD has broken the lower trend line of a descending channel pattern.

The rate has also confirmed the previous support level as resistance, by reaching the 1.2750 level and bouncing off it.

Meanwhile, the rate has fallen fall below the daily simple moving averages, which is a clear signal that the rate has been oversold.

Daily chart

Traders remain long on GBP/USD

On Tuesday, 72% of open GBP/USD position volume was in long positions on the Swiss Foreign Exchange.

Traders have not closed their long positions despite the recent decline.

Meanwhile, trader set up pending orders in the 100-pip range were almost neutral, as 54% of orders were set to sell.

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