- SWFX market sentiment is neutral
- Pending orders in the 100-pip range are neutral
- US ADP Non-Farms and other releases incoming on Thursday
On Thursday, the EUR/USD faced a strong resistance level at the 1.1350 mark. It was expected from a technical perspective that the rate will be forced down by the various resistance levels. Namely, the 55, 100 and 200-hour simple moving averages were set to push the rate lower.
The European Single Currency appreciated against the US Dollar, following the US FOMC Meeting Minutes release on Thursday at 19:00 GMT. The EUR/USD exchange currency rate gained 18 pips or 0.16% during a minute, right after the release. The European Single Currency continued trading at the 1.138 area against the US Dollar.
The Federal Reserve releases US FOMC Meeting Minutes where fed officials provide in-depth insights into the economic and financial conditions that influenced their vote on where to set interest rates.
The minutes said, "Almost all participants expressed the view that another increase in the target range for the federal funds rate was likely to be warranted fairly soon".
ADP Non-Farms will impact the EUR/USD
At 13:15 GMT on Thursday the ADP Non-Farm Employment change will be published and covered by Dukascopy Analytics on the bank's webinar platform and YouTube channel.Moreover, the weekly Crude Oil Inventories will be published at 16:00 GMT. This data release causes bounced in oil prices from half a dollar up to ninety cents.
The day will end with the head of the Federal Reserve testifying before the US Congress at 23:45 GMT.
Last but not least will be the Friday's monthly US and Canadian employment data release at 13:30 GMT. This event will also be covered by Dukascopy Analytics.
EUR/USD daily review
During Wednesday's trading session, the currency exchange rate was resisted by the 100-hour SMA to end the trading session at 1.1344. On Thursday morning, the European Single Currency was resisted by the 200-hour SMA to trade at 1.1324.In regards to the near-term future, most likely, the European Single Currency will keep trading downside to reach the bottom boundary of the medium horizontal pattern at the 1.1300 level.
On the other hand, today's US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI at 15:00 GMT could break the predictions for the currency pair. The fundamental event could push the rate to break the weekly PP and the monthly PP to trade at the 1.1360 level.
Hourly Chart
On the daily chart the currency exchange rate remains in the borders of the descending channel pattern. In the longer term the decline is still expected to occur.
For the decline to begin, the rate has to break free from the pivot points near the 1.1340 level.
Daily chart
Since Monday, the trader open positions on the Swiss Foreign Exchange in regards to the EUR/USD had become perfectly balanced 50/50. Meaning, half of traders were long and the second half were shorting the pair.
Meanwhile, trader pending orders in the 100-pip range on Tuesday morning had also become balanced. This had not changed on Wednesday.
This indicates that a push either upwards or downwards will be caused by the larger players in the forex market and not the retail traders.