GBP/USD volatility remains high due to Brexit

Note: This section contains information in English only.
Source: Dukascopy Bank SA
  • The Swiss market is 64% bullish on the pair
  • Pending orders in the 100-pip range are 54% set to sell
  • Brexit turmoil continues, and volatility is high

The GBP/USD ends the week with all patterns broken and Theresa May making statements that contradict her actions. Namely, while the PM of UK called her cabinet to prepare after all for a hard Brexit, she announced that she is not working on that scenario and concentrates on her plan.

Latest Fundamental Event

The US Bureau of Economic Analysis released US Prelim GDP data that came out lower than expected of 3.5 compared with forecasted 3.6%.

The Bureau of Economic Analysis noted: "Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased 3.5 percent in the third quarter of 2018, according to the "second" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. The growth rate was unrevised from the "advance" estimate released in October. In the second quarter, real GDP increased 4.2 percent. "

No UK releases this week

Last, but most important for data release traders, will be the Canadian GDP data release at 13:30 GMT. This event is expected to cause the most volatility that a data release can cause. Although, it will be only observable on Canadian Dollar pairs.

The event will be covered live by Dukascopy Analytics. The live coverage will begin ten minutes before the event. It can be watched on the Dukascopy Webinars platform and the YouTube channel.
Join the Webinar: Webinar Platform

GBP/USD short term review

During Thursday's trading session, the currency exchange rate was resisted by the 100-hour SMA to end the trading session at the 1.2781 mark. During Friday morning hours, the British Pound was resisted by the 55-hour and the 100-hour SMAs to trade at the 1.2781 mark.

In regards to the near-term future, most likely, the currency exchange rate will move downside due to the resistances of the 55-hour and the 100-hour SMAs which should push the British Pound to trade below the weekly S1 at 1.2750 mark.

On the other side, the rate might get supported by the weekly S1 at 1.2750 which could help the British pound to stay at previously drawn ascending medium pattern to trade at 1.2760 level during the trading session on Friday.

Hourly Chart


On the daily chart the rather narrow descending pattern was crushed during the last wave of volatility. In general, wait for the Brexit turmoil to end. Then the technical charting of the market can be resumed.

Daily chart

Long positions remain intact

Long sentiment on the GBP/USD still remains dominant. On Friday, 64% of trader open positions were long.

However, traders are no longer set to open more long positions. On Thursday, around 55% of orders in the 100-pip range were set to buy. On Friday, 55% of orders were set to sell.

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